This is what a bullish market is made of-gap lower, rally throughout the day, close higher. And, although volume was light (and has been) pricewise, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000s now look potentially explosive! What would change that? Perhaps a move under 87.00 in IWM and 146.20 in SPY. Best part? All of this without AAPL.
S&P 500 (SPY) Next resistance goes back to September at 148.11. Support to hold 146.00 area Subs: Pivots Neutral
Russell 2000 (IWM) On all-time highs! Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Once gaps like the one this had had from October, get filled, it is usually a sign for a move in the direction of the gap. Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Doji day and although AAPL is wreaking havoc, this is holding up okay. Subs: Pivots Negative-would look to buy over 66.80
ETFs:
GLD Still want to be negative here, but will not fight the up move until it is done
XLF (Financials) Held the fast moving average with 17.20 next and 20 the ultimate target.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the fast moving average
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.00, a nagging point of resistance for a year, is the "somewhere over the rainbow" to clear.
XRT (Retail) Took out 63.40 and never looked back.
IYT (Transportation) Been waiting for 101 and today's high 100.68!
IYR (Real Estate) Back to the top of an ascending channel
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day under the 200 DMA. Subs: Will go back to looking at SCO if this fails today's low
OIH (Oil Services) inside day
XLE (Energy) Made new 2013 highs. Subs: A close above 74.00 takes out a monthly trendline going back from 2008
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Over 64.80 will add as this held the gap higher from 01/02.
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 58.90 recent highs.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Best close since October 18th.
XHB (Homebuilders) Sideways consolidation
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subs: If 21.77 holds, would look to reenter the long with stop under 21.60
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ARG Reports before the open 1/24. Inside day. 92.00 should hold
BZH If today's low holds, very oversold. Plus, R1 and today's high line up
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
*NOTE: There are many stocks that are rallying and are at or near 52-week highs. I have been trying to find picks that are not already up big
TGI Reports 1/30. Improved in condition. Like to see 68.40 hold
TSO* Nice open over the 10 DMA. Now, perhaps look for a reversal to control risk
TRIP Slightly negative pivots. Over 44.33 will look to add. 43.56 S1 support to hold
TSLA Over 34.00 worth a fresh look if 33.20 holds
COG a hold 48.60 area and could see move to 52.00
BEAM* 60.75 good risk and looks good to around 64.00
DISH 36.70 good place to hold now
FSLR Reports 1/31. Inside day. 31.00 good risk point
MTH Reports 1/31. Has to hold today's low and then get over R1 42.20
JAZZ To control risk, a reversal would be good. Otherwise, 56.00 now max risk
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change RHT confirmed accumulation phase if holds 54.60 level DVA Over today's high looks good provided 110 the 50 DMA holds-unconfirmed phase change to bullish PNRA 163.38 max risk looking for 168 BYD On the 200 DMA at 6.64-which means a super risk if takes out 6.76 R1 CNX Possible slingshot pattern if holds today's low, takes out today's high. 30.30 tighter risk EXXI Like to see it clear R1-has lots of converging moving averages
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NEM Max risk R1 45.65 and has some support at 44.60 that has to break
Bye for Now!
