Lot of inside days in a couple of indexes and sectors. Also, not unexpected, a rally in AAPL brought buyers to NASDAQ which cleared the fast moving average. Russell 2000 and the Dow had the inside days. S&P 500 a bit more indecisive. Volume once again, super light. All in all, not much to add to a dull day other than trend intact-waiting for new buyers to show up-can't exactly get negative with meager volume drifts lower.
S&P 500 (SPY) Next resistance goes back to September at 148.11. Support to hold 146.60 Subs: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) After all-time highs, the encore is an inside day Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Inside day Subs: Pivots Slightly Negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 66.60 level should hold as AAPL had a reversal patter today. Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Still want to be negative here, but will not fight the up move until it is done Subs: Negative Pivots
XLF (Financials) Held the fast moving average with 17.20 next and 20 the ultimate target.
IBB (Biotechnology) A bit toppy now
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.00, a nagging point of resistance for a year, is the "somewhere over the rainbow" to clear. And now, a golden cross about to occur
XRT (Retail) Nice follow through nearing resistance from September 2012
IYT (Transportation) 101.60 the 2011 high
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day near the top of an ascending channel
USO (US Oil Fund) Looks now like it wants 36.00
OIH (Oil Services) 41.00 some resistance to clear
XLE (Energy) Made new 2013 highs, again
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Over 64.45 would be interesting
DVY (Select Dividend Index) Inside day. 58.90 recent highs.
XHB (Homebuilders) Sideways consolidation. Inside day. Subs: Small short position in LEN
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subs: Like to see this take out 21.81 now
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
A 4 days down on the 10 DMA. Today's low max risk and like to see it clear today's high and R1.
AMZN 1/29 Reports. 2-day correction wit good risk to the 10 DMA 266.57.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TSO* Look for a reversal to control risk against today's low
TRIP Neutral pivots. Inside day. Over 44.40 will look to add. 43.50 S1 support to hold
TSLA Inside day. 34.25 next hurdle to clear and today's low good risk
COG Like to see today's low hold and this get through 50.00
LNKD* Reports 1/31. Looking for a push to 125 if can hold 116.30
DISH Great OR reversal today with 37.50 next hurdle to clear
EOG If today's low holds and it clears R1 good see another test of 126.45 and beyond.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BZH Oversold and holding a gap from 01/02
Phase Change RHT Like to see it close over 55.00 for an add BYD Held the 200 DMA. Let's see if this can clear the 10 DMA next at 6.83 CNX Did not confirm the slingshot unless it clears 30.64 P Inside day and still hanging tough. PM retraced to the 200 DMA and now has to clear R1.
Shorts: Not seeing any great setups
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
LO Reversed late in day. Now should stay below 39.20 with support at 38.00
Bye for Now!
