First round of the big guns reported. All reported better than expected and all rallied substantially post market. That could mean a good run coming in technology (XLK) and semiconductors. That could also mean profit taking in energy, oil and commodities. However, a lot of that will have to do with rates, which dropped today. Retail, real estate and transportation-although all doing well, are extended. The financial ETF took out 2011 highs. Market could be approaching a near-term top, but I would rather scope out the next sector to hang out with. That's been the most fun!
S&P 500 (SPY) Like so many instruments, this has a super high 2-day RSI. But, no type of blow off rally feel since volume is light. Subs: Tops are typically made 3 ways: Blow off rally with huge volume, slingshot patterns or, 2 or more tops made at resistance areas. S1 important again
Russell 2000 (IWM) The power of the small caps indeed. Perhaps resistance overhead at the Bollinger bands where it stopped today. Subs: Now, the chandelier exits or the 10 DMA are great for any balances you are holding long.
Dow (DIA) 136.48 the 2012 high now pivotal. Now that IBM reported, would expect a gap higher. Question will be if it holds.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 70.58 is the 2012 high-not even a factor yet. 67.34 was 2013 high which it cleared Thursday but remains below. GOOG reported. AAPL is next. Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD I still maintain the best scenario overall is for GLD to retreat. But, right now, the longs have it with the 5O DMA the obvious resistance to clear. Subs: S1 is 163.30
XLF (Financials) Cleared 17.20 the 2011 high and 20 the ultimate target. 17.00 is the best support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.17 a good area to clear and today's low good to hold
XRT (Retail) Overbought. Subs: The hammer candle could look like a forced push up-keep eyes on S1.
IYT (Transportation) Overbought
IYR (Real Estate) Not as excited about this group as I was in 2012. The high from 2012 68.26, a bit closer than where it was last week.
USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance at 35.00 and closed right there. If good, should clear. If not, still longer term trend is negative
OIH (Oil Services) Approaching overbought
XLE (Energy) 77.35 the 2012 high. Like to see some digestion since overbought now on daily RSI. Subs: took more profit
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Has to hold today's low
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
*Note: Lots of extended stocks-note the earning dates on your positions. Nothing on list with a 2-day RSI over 92
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FCS* 14.78 good risk and has to clear 15.00
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
*NOTE: GOOG IBM ISRG CREE that gap higher-can look at a 2 minute fade/follow the gap or wait for a 30 minute opening range reversal
ACN Needs to hold 70.40 now, especially since that is where this filled the gap
FLO Has to hold today's low and clear 27.25. Then, in uncharted territory
ESV* 61.30 the 10 DMA to hold. R1 62.15 a good point to clear
TCK Like to see 37.42 hold and then could see a test of recent highs and beyond
KORS Has to clear 55.15 and stay there
TSO Inside day. Has to hold today's low and clear R1 43.37
MOS* If it clears 60.00 see move to 62.00 and beyond.
VHC 32.40 should hold now. Like reversal or breakout depending on risk
TRIP Improved in condition. Like to see 44 hold and 44.60 clear
USG* Tried for the 30.00 resistance again. After that, 35.00 next clear area. Has to hold 29.40
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change PM Now has to hold 90.00 CLH Through Friday's high 56.93 this is an add P Improved in condition. 10.50 good risk. Over 11.18 could see 12.00 AFL* Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Like to see 52.45 hold MJNA (a rare pick) .16 recent highs which if clears is a buy and hold.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NVDA 12.27 max risk and possible move to 7.00
ESRX Should not clear 55.00. Support at 53.75
WPI Should not clear 85.59. Has to break today's low after an inside day.
PANL Slingshot looks confirmed. 27.67 good risk with support at 25.00
Bye for Now!
