AAPL-the Aftermath. I'm pretty certain those AAPL longs are wishing for Silence of the Lambs. Price action on the daily NASDAQ chart looks like a tear drop. However, the moving averages are about to cross back to golden. S&P 500 on the other hand, made a new multi-year high as did the Russell 2000 and the Dow. Very confusing scenario when divergences like these occur. But, all the phases-and I am so much about the phases-are the same. Therefore, do not sell weakness, and take profits on strength until further notice.
S&P 500 (SPY) Good volume but not blow off rally volume. Once again, S1 held like a rock, making that reference point perhaps a deciding factor on how the week ends (if it holds or not). Also, let's not discount the high 2-day RSIs Subs: Tops are typically made 4 ways: Blow off rally with huge volume, slingshot patterns, Island tops or, 2 or more tops made at resistance areas.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Top of the Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. Like SPY, how this closes out the week (above or below S1) could very well set the stage for next week.
Dow (DIA) I guess today settled how that breakaway gap works. For now, very high 2-day RSI
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.34, a pivotal number, which it tried hard to test but failed to penetrate shall remain elusive until it's not. Otherwise, 66.17 is the gap low for the year to hold Subs: Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Got that selloff I thought might happen. But, now the price is right on the 200 DMA so could bounce a bit to the fast moving average, then fail
XLF (Financials) Good volume even though end of day, retreated from the highs. Overall, still looks great for this year and a dip would be a buy opportunity
IBB (Biotechnology) A bit sloppy looking chart-which could mean heavy here
SMH (Semiconductors) Like to see today's low hold for now
XRT (Retail) Pretty overbought up here Subs: Watch this for a possible slingshot
IYT (Transportation) Even if this sells off from here, I still am quite satisfied with the results
IYR (Real Estate) 68.26 the 2012 high. High RSI now
USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance at 35.00. If good, should clear. If not, still longer term trend is negative
XLE (Energy) 77.35 the 2012 high.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 8 months this has been in a range really. One day, bye bye 60's hello 70's!
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Over 58.00 should give this another leg up
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
*Note: New subscribers-good to look this over and pick 1-2 to track and/or wait until I tweet ones that I like pre market.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
USG* 29.30 the 10 DMA and now pivotal to hold with recent highs to clear
OMX If holds today's low, like the 2-year reversal over the 200 weekly moving average.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
Post Earnings: KLAC over 53.00 could see 2012 highs and beyond
TCK Risk to today's low max and over 37.80 looks good for test of highs and beyond
TSO Long and took ½ ATR now want to see it hold 44.15 and keep going to the recent highs
MOS* Prefer a reversal now to control risk-60 should hold
TRIP Like to see 44.15 hold
WAG Has to hold 39.35 and clear 39.45 on a closing basis for a move to 45.00 or beyond
MAS Has to hold the 10 DMA 17.57 and clear 17.90 on a closing basis
AXP Golden cross with max risk today's lows
JPM Good risk to 46.34 the 10 DMA and over recent highs could see new leg up if market stays firm
FCS A reversal against the 10 DMA would control risk and over 15.75 could see 2011 highs
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OCN Reports 1/31. Really oversold now and has to hold 35.49 the 50 DMA
JOY Has to hold 64.76 and clear today's high
Phase Change P Has to hold 10.88 the 10 DMA UA Reports next week. Over today's high a new slingshot for a miniswing trade BBT 30.75 is max risk and like this one for a hold to around 35.00 RHT Peeked over the 200 DMA again. Worth watching for today's low to hold TIF Inside day. Golden Cross. Over today' s high looks good PNC 62.25 is a good point to clear and today's low good place to hold. MJNA second inside day
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FCX 35.32 is the 50 DMA and max risk. Could see 33.50 next
NEM Should not clear today's high and could see new lows
Bye for Now!
