S&P 500 has the longest winning streak since 2004; 1st close above 1500 since December 2007. These are the type of lofty headlines that make traders very happy (if their P & L is in line with the market), very worried (when will the party end?) and very baffled (why is AAPL not involved?) But, as a phase follower, since 2013 began, the phase has accelerated bullish in all but NASDAQ, which remains in an accumulation phase but on the verge of a golden cross. Tops are typically made one of four ways: Blow off rally with huge volume, slingshot patterns, Island tops or, 2 or more tops made at resistance areas. The market will tell you. Do not let the emotional nemesis of "hope, fear and greed" rule your world.
*Monday: The December durable goods report will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST. At 10:00 a.m. EST, the December pending home sales report comes out.
S&P 500 (SPY) Good volume but still not blow off rally volume. A high 2-day RSI but still ok longer term Subs: Friday low now important, especially since S1 is above the lows.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Poked its head out over the weekly Bollinger Band and got to the top of a monthly one. Best news is that this is still not overbought. Friday's low will be closely watched.
Dow (DIA) Up to Bollinger bands in both the weekly and monthly charts. Curious about the low volume all around.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.34, a pivotal number, which it tried hard to test but failed to penetrate shall remain elusive until it's not. Inside day Friday. 66.17 is the gap low for the year to hold Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Unconfirmed distribution phase. Friday high is where the 200 DMA is and recent low158.39 represents an important point to hold.
XLF (Financials) Inside day to end the week with no real concerns
IBB (Biotechnology) Still underperforming relative to the other sectors, but had a good day Friday.
SMH (Semiconductors) Friday's low is important and still has some catching up to do if this is good
XRT (Retail) Still overbought but only on a 2-day basis-not a weekly or monthly one
IYT (Transportation) DOJI and hammer candle to end the week. Even if this sells off from here, I still am quite satisfied with the profits we keep looking at and those which we have already taken
IYR (Real Estate) 68.26 the 2012 high. Got real close on Friday
USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance at 35.00. If good, should clear. If not, still longer term trend is negative
OIH (Oil Services) 43.80 is an important monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) 77.35 the 2012 high.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Like to see Friday low hold
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 65.00 decent target
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Over 58.00 should give this another leg up
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
*Note: New subscribers-good to look this over and pick 1-2 to track and/or wait until I tweet ones that I like pre market. Did not include anything with a daily or weekly RSI over 92 to control risk, or if reporting on or before next Thursday.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OMX 10.62 pivotal and Friday high good point to clear. Like the 2-year reversal over the 200 weekly moving average.
SWK* Inside day and good correction after earnings. 76.70 good tight risk and could see a good move if market stays firm
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TCK* Taking its time getting going, but still attractive given its cross over the 200 weekly moving average. Prefer now to buy strength over Friday high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
USG* Closed on new multi-year highs and could see 35.00 if market stays firm. 29.45 the 10 DMA
TEL 2 inside days. Over 39.87 uncharted territory-miniswing best since weekly RSI high
TSO* Inside day and slightly negative pivots with room to upside over Friday's high.
AXP 60.15 is the 10 DMA and next hurdle if holds 59.20
HOT Inside day and near the breakout point over 60.95. Has to hold Friday low
JWN Inside day. As long as 55.26 holds, if this can eventually clear 56.70, then 2007 high 59.70 reasonable
FCS* Inside day and slightly negative pivots. If this can clear 16.0o takes out 2012 high
NBL Inside day. 106.80 is the 10 DMA and max risk. 108.76 highs to clear. Prefer miniswing on this one as weekly RSI climbing
OCN Reports 1/31. Inside day. Now needs to hold 37.00 (Included since some of you may already be long)
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change BBT 30.75 is max risk and like over 31.20 to hold for around 35.00 RHT Opening Range Reversal preferred against 55.40 area TIF Needs now, a close over 64.25 MRK Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. If holds the 50 DMA 43.20 then could see run but have to exit by Thursday close. CHKP Inside day and unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Through 49.63 looks good if it closes over49.32 PNC 3 highs at 62.39 to clear MJNA Third inside day
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FCX 35.25 is the 50 DMA and max risk. Could see 33.50 next
ACT (Formerly known as WPI) 85.30 a good risk now to see 83.20 and perhaps lower
FDO Inside day. 59.80 max risk, 59.00 closer risk. Under 58.00 could see 55.00 and lower.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
GRMN 39.13 good risk with a break of S1 38.52 a short with next support 37.00
ALXN 2 inside days. 95.91 max risk, 95.51 closer risk. Under S1 93.77 could see 90.00 hten 86.00
Bye for Now!
