Although the market internals are weakening to some degree, the volume and action is so uninspiring right now for both the bears and bulls. Therefore, this is also a good time to keep eyes on the sector and group rotation (well, always) and setups on individual stocks. Certainly, it's a good time to lock in profits and keep those trailing stops. But, overall, no panic as phases all bullish.
S&P 500 (SPY) Made a new high but closed just shy. Today's low will be watched again. Time digestion is another valid way to work off overbought conditions. Subs: S1 and today's low line up. Pivots neutral
Russell 2000 (IWM) Made another new high and still not terribly overbought. Subs: Today's low is lower than S1
Dow (DIA) Overbought after 4 big days up following the breakaway gap
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Golden cross. 67.00 a good place to hold and 67.46 now a good place to clear. Subs: AAPL had an inside day and never closed on a 30 minute bar over R1. Now, that lines up with today's high and will have a big impact on the QQQs. Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD confirmed distribution phase and oversold on the daily. Subs: Over 160.32 looks better but still would have to clear R1 to see a better bounce
XLF (Financials) Bearish engulfing pattern which could or could not mean something if it breaks 17.25
IBB (Biotechnology) Still underperforming relative to the other sectors, but holding the fast moving average. Subs: Brick wall in this last week. But since I could not short, have to stick with stocks in this sector. GILD possible slingshot
SMH (Semiconductors) Like to see this hold 34.00 now
XRT (Retail) Inside day doji day
IYT (Transportation) Possible shooting stars-so eyes on to finally get out of our last piece.
IYR (Real Estate) Took out the 2012 high and closed below. Reversal? Doubtful but could see some correction.
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Over 35.00 will look for a long position swing with stop under today's low 34.57
XLE (Energy) 77.35 the 2012 high.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Possible slingshot if breaks 66.75
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 65.00 decent target
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
*Note: New subscribers-good to look this over and pick 1-2 to track and/or wait until I tweet ones that I like pre market. Did not include anything with a daily or weekly RSI over 92 to control risk, or if reporting on or before Friday.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FCS* Today's low must hold. Today's high and R1 line up. If this can clear 16.00 takes out 2012 high
BHP Has to clear today's high and R1 and hold 77.20
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SWK* 2 Inside days. But now, want to see it clear today's high and the 10 DMA and hold today's low
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
OMX 11.17 recent high. Now has to hold 10.70
M Over 39.55 could have legs but has to hold around 39.00
A Slightly negative pivots and inside day which means tight risk to today's low for possible continuation move.
URBN Inside day. 42.76 the 10 DMA max risk.
ESV* Has to clear 62.90 and hold 62.00 with the 10 DMA underlying support
NBL 2 Inside days. 108.65 Friday's high has to clear also R1 since pivots are actually negative. Max risk today's low.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JOY Oversold and very close to the 50 DMA 61.66 which is max risk if this can clear today's high and R1
NSM Oversold and inside day. Has to hold Friday low 33.79 and clear 35.25
SWC* Oversold and has to hold Friday low 13.11 and clear the 10 DMA 13.83
Phase Change BBT Touched the 200 DMA and held. Now must clear31.20 for move to around 35.00 RHT Inside day. Opening Range Reversal preferred against 55.98 area but would consider a PNC 3 highs at 62.39 to clear MJNA Tried to buy this today, but need special permission from our platform since it is over the counter. CLH looked like it would clear the 200 DMA. Still looking to buy over that point
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FCX Inside day. 35.17 is the 50 DMA and max risk. Could see 33.50 next
ACT (Formerly known as WPI) 84.76 a good risk now to see 83.20 and perhaps lower
FDO 58.54 max risk. Under 58.00 could see 55.00 and lower.
ALXN 95.62 max risk and still needs to break S1 even though pivots now negative
Bye for Now!
