Looking at our indicators, S&P 500 long term remains in great shape yet still shows shorter term as overdone. NASDAQ shows longer term not as strong as SPY, but on the shorter-term, moderately positive. Another classic day of dips as buy opportunities and sector/group rotation. Volume all around light. Oil and energy were the big winners along with homebuilders.
S&P 500 (SPY) Another new high close post 2008. Not seeing any reasons to be worried. However, I read somewhere that this has been the most hated bull market. I can see why. But, no signs of a top even with its overdone internals. Subs: S1 and today's low line up. Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day which is interesting since so many traders on the twitter stream today were sure this was indicating the end of the run. And still not terribly overbought. Subs: Today's low is lower than S1 again
Dow (DIA) Overbought yesterday after 4 big days up following the breakaway gap and overbought after 5 days up. Price matters more than relative strength indicators is the big lesson here
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Looks like a lot of sideways consolidation in a now improved bullish phase. Through 67.46 go with it. Subs: Probably should have kept long on the opening range reversal in AAPL, especially since looks like a slingshot low in place for now. QQQ's Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Touched and closed shy of the 200 DMA which means a gap up or down should dictate next direction up or down
XLF (Financials) A one day bearish engulfing pattern (yesterday's) is meaningless if it doesn't confirm Now, with an inside day, tomorrow's range should shed some light.
IBB (Biotechnology) Still underperforming relative to the other sectors, but holding the fast moving average. Subs: Brick wall in this last week. But since I could not short, have to stick with stocks in this sector. GILD possible slingshot and now an inside day-watch today's low
SMH (Semiconductors) Like to see this hold 34.00 now Subs: Will add over 34.50
XRT (Retail) Looks pretty good over Friday high 67.13
IYT (Transportation) 3 Possible shooting stars-so eyes on to finally get out of our last piece. Today did not do it
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Got long today on the opening range reversal. Like the stop under today's low
OIH (Oil Services) On fire
XLE (Energy) Cleared the 2012 high, now looking at 2011 high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Took our profits early, which ahead of the FED meeting might not be so bad. We shall see.
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 65.00 decent target
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Good day for a re entry
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
*Note: New subscribers-good to look this over and pick 1-2 to track and/or wait until I tweet ones that I like pre market. Did not include anything with a daily or weekly RSI over 92 to control risk, or if reporting on or before Friday. Some beauties today: CLH ESV M BHP NBL
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
URBN Eyes here since held the 10 DMA. Max risk today's low and over today's high lines up nicely with R1.
EQT* Like that it has corrected and held the 50 DMA closing above the 10 DMA. Over R1 looks good with stop 59.95
TEL Narrow range and inside day. Today's low has to hold with today's high and R1 lining up
USG* Reports 2/6. Narrow range day. If holds today's low, R1 and today's high lines up
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FCS* If can clear the FTP, it will also clear back over the 10 DMA. Then, over 16.00 takes out 2012 high
C If can hold S1 41.86, over 42.20 clears back over the 10 DMA.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
Possible Gap: CHK A gap over 20.60 worth looking at
BHP Some resistance at 78.61 but with today's gap higher, look for a reversal.
SWK* I like to look at the 30 min chart and R1 end of the day. This did not close above R1 on that timeframe. Over 77.36, especially on a gap would look good. Otherwise, have to see it hold 76.50 level
SWC* Over 13.75, then the 10 DMA has a gap to 14.03 and above would hang with it. Stop 13.35 good
EOG Big move so if gets a reversal near 125.60 better risk control
MS 21.99 is the 10 DMA to hold. Through 23.00 looks for a swing
MAS* Worked off the overbought condition with now an inside day. R1 lines up with yesterday high. 20-22 could be next. But has earnings 02/11
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JOY Keeping this here with stop now at 62.42 with 62.95 pivotal
NSM Oversold. Has to hold 33.79 and clear 35.25
Phase Change OMX Inside day.BBT 30.79 the place to hold and after's todays break, over R1 like better. RHT A bit insane, but did hold the 200 DMA which means 53.93 a great stop and over R1 lining up with today's high. PNC 3 highs at 62.39 to clear MSI* If today's low holds, like it over today's high and R1 line up
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
IACI 41.05 max risk with 38.20 recent lows
ESRX 54.17 max risk and like to see a break of today's low
Bye for Now!
