Turnaround Tuesday alright. Or should I say, turned around Tuesday. However, a couple of trends been pointing out all year-first is the downtrend in Metals, Energy andOil. Second is the relative strength in Biotech, Retailand Real Estate. With that said, don't fight the tape-the market always tell us when it's safe to get back in.
S&P 500 (SPY)Filled the gap from last Thursday's low and went south. 133.90 is the 50 DMA which it managed to hang onto. Yet another distribution day in volume which means even a low volume rally off the 50 DMA would not necessarily be a cure. Under 133.90, next support 132.85. Over 135, much better scenario.
Russell 2000 (IWM)Held the 10 DMA but with same ugly volume and candlestick patterns as the others, therefore, no cheering. 78.56 the gap low from 6/29. And, if can hold there, first place to look for a possible long entry.
Dow (DIA) Closed in an unconfirmed warning phase with a distribution in volume and a nasty looking bearish engulfing pattern.125.65 next support and now that its approaching oversold on a 2-day RSI, if can hold back above the 50 DMA, could see some relief
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Tested the 50 DMA and closed right there. Over 63.75 could hold up otherwise, look at 62.50 next support.
ETFs:
GLD Snaps out of the doldrums and follows its bear phase by dropping to fill the gap from 6/28 high. This year, held 148.50 three weeks in a row. Big number now.
XLF (Financials) In one day, filled the gaps on the up and downsides. 14.28 a good number to watch for hold or failure.
IBB (Biotechnology) 130 area to watch for hold or failure
SMH (Semiconductors) Has to hold 30.50 to have any chance of 3 higher lows.
XRT (Retail) Interesting range expansion day and outperformer of the market. Eyes here.
IYT (Transportation) 90.85 next support
IYR (Real Estate)Some areas as this corrects. 63.80, 63.35 then 62.50. All are support areas that keeps the current phase intact. 65.19 now major resistance
Subscribers: Here is the track record of my trades over last few weeks- Note the profits on the swings versus the small losses on last few trades. I do not ordinarily show this, but thought it helpful to demonstrate the 225% formula at work.
Swing Trades-(only 1/2 position on now in BUD-otherwise all cash)
XLF Entered: 6/12 13.97Added: 14.15. Exited Add: 14.60Exit: 14.39
IYR Entered: 6/28 61.50Exited ½: 63.00 Exited: 64.34
IYT Entered: 6/27 90.05Exited ½: 92.25 Exit: 91.99
X Entered: 6/2719.02 Exit: ½: 19.50 Exit: ¼ 21.50Exit balance: 20.34
AAPL Entered: 6/29 579Exited ½ 584 Exited 606.94
NFLX: Entered: 6/2866.50 Exited ½ 68.00 Exited ¼ 71.50Exited: 82.70 (Chandelier)
GLD: Entered 7/09 154.50Exited: 154.03
EQR Entered: 7/09 64.40Exited: 63.83
EXPE Entered: 7/10 48.00Exited: 47.41
BUD Entered: 7/10 78.58Exited 1/2: 78.25 Holding ½ for swing
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CL Reports 7/26. 3 days under pivots has to hold 103.56 and clear 104.05 then today's high
HFC 35.35 max risk and must clear 35.95 the FTP
FDX If holds 90.50, then must clear 90.79 the FTP.
LO Reports 7/23. Narrow range day. Has to hold 135 and should really clear 137 with some volume for another leg up
STZ Says it reported today so have to check. Max risk 26.25 and should clear 27.77 the FTP
VECO Report's 7/30. Can use today's low for risk and has to clear 35.38 the FTP first
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HCA Reports 7/30. Inside day. Has to hold today's low and clear 28.57
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BUD Kept ½ position on OR reversal buy. 77.04 the 10 DMA to hold. 77.88 S1 and over 78.40 might add
HD Reports 8/14. 51.94 now max risk
WFM Reports 7/25. 94.19 max risk
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EXPE Now officially oversold condition 4. 45.19 max risk for swing or until it reports 7/26. Has to clear 46.53 first then 47.77.
Phase Change, Positive Pivots: AXP Reports 7/18. Outperformed. Now has to hold 58.00, clear 58.73.DKS Outperformed. Has to hold 48.79 49.26 then today's high.LTD downgraded and outperformed market. 45.11 max risk, then must clear 45.57 the FTP KORS 3 days under pivots but outperformed. Inside day, has to hold today's low ad clear 42.76 then today's high
Shorts: Typically, I do not list those that have any RSI under 15.00
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CI Inside day. Cannot clear today's high. Support down at 38.50
DO Reports 7/19. Cannot cross 59.68. 40.00 longer term support
ESV Reports 7/26. Like to see this below 47.05. Support 44.50
FTI Reports 7/24. Cannot clear 41.04. Support 37.00
RRC If going to stay weak now, should not trade above 60.55. Reports 7/25
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
AAP Overbought in bear phase. Can't cross 71.05 and should fail today's low
MCD 5 days up against the 50 DMA. Cannot cross 90.38 and should fail today's low. Reports 7/23
Bye for now!