SPY After opening higher and failing to get through the first 30 minutes opening range or R1, it reversed and closed below the declining 50 DMA with a Distribution Day in volume. 130 was the breakout area from 2 weeks ago and it got fairly close with a low today of 130.68. But, since the island top, the anticipation that SPY would be weakest of the 3 indexes certainly played out. If it can cross back above the 50 DMA at 131.56, perhaps it can begin to recover. A close above 132.20 would be a healthy sign. On the weekly chart, the bullish trend remains intact.
QQQ Once it broke the opening range low, it never traded back above and did what was expected-dropped to the 50 day moving average which is now declining and comes in tomorrow at 56.77. It also had a Distribution Day in volume with the weekly trend intact. Should it open above 57.40, the floor trader pivot, expect to see a test to the 10 day moving average at 58.01. A close above that would be encouraging. Otherwise, a break of the 50 DMA and 56.50 next stop.
IWM Mirrored the QQQ by stopping just shy of the 50 DMA at 81.88. Now, would not expect the midcaps to lead.
With the positive earnings in GOOG, and the immediate follow through in BIDU AMZN SINA and AAPL, it will be Nasdaq that will lead the way from here. The question is- what will have the biggest impact-the earnings or the political posturing? Until there is more clarity, we are sticking to either swing trading with wide stops and small position sizing or active daytrading.
Featured ETFS:
GLD new highs again. Since it got so close to our target of 155, a conservative stop is now is under 153.55.
IYR Was the go to short on the opening range breakdown today. Now, holding the 70 Exponential moving average at 60.26. With underlying support at 60 and oversold conditions, expect a bounce 61.25 area for now.
XRT A move back above 54.35 should then test 55. The 50 DMA is still positively sloped.
SMH The 50 weekly moving average comes in at 32.24 with a recent swing low in June at 32.15. That is the last area of support that would give this some promise of a turnaround. Otherwise, a test of the 30 area very likely.
OIH Held the declining 50 DMA coming in now at 148.53. Also failed the overhead 10 DMA at 152.29. Back above 150.30 and would expect another test of the 10 DMA. Otherwise, underlying support at 147.70 area.
Picks: Exited KLAC which failed to get follow through above the moving averages, still in GLD, UUP and addedPOT for a swing trade. Otherwise, daytrading the momentum until a clearer trend emerges.
Longs: Criteria is good daily setups and/or oversold conditions holding key moving averages. Any pick with positive pivots is a candidate for an opening range reversal.
POT*At this point, using the 10 DMA at 57.63 with a rolldown to nearest reference point for stop on swing. Would be willing to add if it gets back above 58.50. A close above 58.20 is encouraging for tomorrow, and at this point would also like to see it clear today's high 59.57 with next resistance up at 61.30. after that resistance at 63.97. Day to swing.
LO*Reports July 25th. Held S1 and has positive pivots tomorrow. 109.70 is the FTP. A good risk is to 109.14 S1. If it clears 110.90 on a closing basis, breaks a flag on both the daily and weekly with a projected move up to 124. Day to mini.
SPG reports July 26. After making new highs on July 7, has been selling off with the pressure of the market. Now is oversold and has four days under the floor trader pivot. It is possible we will see a further dip down to 116.40 area, but if it can clear 117.89, the FTP, especially if the market is firm, then anticipate a move back up first to 119.10, the 10 day moving average, then with an objective of a move to 121.70 the hi from last week. Day to mini
SLB reports July 22. Now has five days under the floor trader pivot and came very close to the 70 exponential moving average at 85.49. Above 86.43 the FTP, can either use the 70 EMA or today's low 85.76 as a risk. Needs to clear 87.11 R1 and then could possibly run back up to the overhead resistance at the 10 day moving average now at 87.96. If it really gets going, possible to see a move up to 93. Day to mini
CLF has negative pivots but a good daily chart and an inside day. Plus, it held S1. The 10 day moving average is at 95.24 a good risk should this get back above the FTP at 96.72. Earnings July 27, but could make a move up to 102 if the market remains firm. Day to mini
LVS been trading around the 200 day moving average at 43.99. Has positive pivots coming in at 44.50. Can use the 200 day moving average and today's low at 43.85 as a risk, and if it clear is 45.14 R1 with a firm market, could see a move up to next resistance at 48.25. Day to swing
ANF reports August 15. Had a DOJI day with the pivotal area 73.35. The 10 day moving average is below at 71.65 and the pivots are positive. It also held S1. This is a good candidate for an opening range reversal against the 10 day moving average. If going to buy strength, would like to see it hold 73.35. Overhead target 80.95. Day to swing
CTRP report August 1. 42.99 is the ultimate support. Moving averages have been converging although not stacked nor sloped. Has positive pivots and held S1. If it holds 44.50, swing traders can use beneath 42.99 as a risk. Mini swing traders can use to 43.61 the 50 day moving average. And daytraders can use 44.12, the 10 day moving average. Overhead resistance at 50. Day to miniswing.
Shorts: Great follow-through on all of the short recommendations over the last couple of days. Now, many approaching oversold. Trail down stops and at this point, would be reluctant to sell weakness.
AET* reports July 27. Broke the 50 day moving average today at 43.64. The pivots are negative with the FTP coming in at 43.57. If it comes in beneath the FTP and the 50 day moving average, especially if it breaks the five-minute opening range, can short with a relatively tight risk. Support at 42.77 with better support underneath at 42.Day to mini.
MET reports July 28. Had an inside day and two DOJI days in a row. The negative pivot and the FTP are at 41.86, if that fails, must also break below 41.40, but once it does next support at 40.37 and then at 39.15. Day to mini
Goodnight!