Been waiting for some signals longer term and others shorter term. Longer term, I waited to see rates at a possible low. Today, that might have happened. I waited to see if GLD would finally falter-that's been happening for a while, but today seemed more of a departure from the overall market's performance. And, I waited to see an accumulation in volume in theS&P 500. That happened too.
S&P 500 (SPY) After we sat through the Bernanke blabber, the market found its toehold and showed us what a bull phase looks like. It cleared the July 10th high, closed well and with good volume. Now, 135.75 should hold and what we have come to learn, if breaks, anything can happen. Next hurdle 137.50
Russell 2000 (IWM) Could not get through 80.10. 79.50 now the big support to hold or could see some pressure Subs: Neutral pivots
Dow (DIA) 128.14 is the July 10thhigh to clear and 127.40 a good point to watch for support
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Until a lot of big stock earnings are out of the way, no surprise to see this firm, but not as good looking as SPY. 63.75 a number to clear and 63.00 to hold.Subs: Positive Pivots
ETFs:
GLD Although it underperformed the market, it also had a huge rally off of the intraday low, kind of like the volatility of the old days. Now, Keeping a negative bias and looking to see what happens at 148.50
XLF (Financials) Second spike in volume with a strong close. And a perfect touchdown and hold on the fast moving average. Really thinking 16 area possible
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs today
SMH (Semiconductors) made a new low from early June by 1 tick and then turned. Subs: Not quite a slingshot pattern and pivots still negative
XRT (Retail) 58.55 watch as this is the 50 DMA and a point if continues to hold should be a bouncing off point and if fails, a key turndown.
IYT (Transportation) Never will it ever cease to amaze me how respected the 200 DMA is. Great bounce after early test. However, still weak performer and now needs to clear 92.45
IYR (Real Estate) What can I say? Have loved this group since the year began
USO (US Oil Fund) Watching 34.00 carefully as a place where this could stop its recent run
OIH (Oil Services) Getting but not quite yet, overbought
XLE (Energy) Same as OIH but better overall chart formation
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Watching to see if TLT can break 128.00 JNK-Long small position on the close and like to see it stay above 39.45
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Many of this week's picks still good or in play. Trying to freshen up the list with new choices that are not overbought or reporting in next few days
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BEAM Improved condition. Like to see 61.83 hold. 64.00 recent high 65.48 2011 high.
BUD 76.70 wall of support to hold. Through today's high could see higher prices with all time high 79.65
CL Reports 7/26 2 inside days so close to the highs. 104.40 the 10 DMA and good risk. All-time high 105.76
DTV Improved to condition 3. 48.45 good risk and one more push through 48.85 could take it higher
ECL Reports 7/24. Improved to condition 3, needs to hold 67.80. 68.98 all-time high
EXPE Reports 7/26. Back to bullish. Still has to cross 46.45 and hold 45.30.
MMM Reports 7/26. Over 90.00 could see run into earnings. Needs to hold 88.45
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WFM Reports 7/25. 2 days under the FTP. Has to clear 93.50 (also good risk) and then 94.86 R1 which also takes out the 10 DMA.
Phase Change: BEN Doji day and confirmed accumulation phase. Over 114 could see pop with risk now 111.70. Positive Pivots. FWaiting for it to clear 9.40 now. POT Reports 7/26. 46.00 next resistance to cross and has to hold 45.15
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
Advanced Traders: AAPL negative pivots still working a possible slingshot pattern and now cannot cross 611.23 and should fail 602.88 S1
GOOG Daytrade only as reports 7/19. Should not clear 580.75. Could see a drop to 565.
NTAP Cannot cross 28.87
NKE Cannot cross 93.48 and should break 91.95 the 10 DMA
RL Aftermarket selloff on news of a change in principal officers. If gaps lower, look for 141.05 S1 as resistance
SLW Max risk 26.32
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lowsN/A
Bye for now!