Low volume sell off in the market. But what is most interesting to me is where support levels are in the indexes and many of the sectors and groups and how those areas held up. Need some follow through of course, but let's go to the numbers. Note-lots of earnings coming out tomorrow and the days ahead.
S&P 500 (SPY) 133.50 is the 50 DMA and really, the most important area to watch since at this point, still in a bullish phase. 135.60 is the fast moving average with a move above enough confirmation to bring back buyers so it would seem.Subs: Now that we have 2 days of negative pivots, R1 is important. Comes in at 135.78.
Russell 2000 (IWM) More worrisome here since it barely held the 50 DMA after doing such a nice job of it a couple of weeks ago. It also touched the 200 DMA and the 65 weekly moving average. Over 78.10 will exhale some, otherwise, approaching oversold which means would not necessarily short, but rather, exercise even more patience on getting long.
Dow (DIA) Subs: R1 127.55 after holding the 50 DMA/ R1 also clears the 10 DMA.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Similar situation. Held the 50 has to clear the fast-short term negative based on pivot stack but holding a bullish phase
ETFs:
GLD Outperformed the market again-watching 153.50 now as resistance or point to clear.
XLF (Financials) Loved the 200 DMA. Held it, rallied from it and closed above the 50 DMA. Subs: 14.35 is R1 if can clear that could be a good reentry point long.
IBB (Biotechnology) If July closes out under 130, would see that as a key reversal to its beautiful uptrend
SMH (Semiconductors) Managed to close above 30.50, the area I have been writing about as support. Subs: R1 is 30.83 otherwise under 30.50 still vulnerable
XRT (Retail) 7/12 swing low 57.58 but this is now under the 50 DMA. Need some clarity on which way this group wants to go from here
IYT (Transportation) Devil came out to play as this gapped under the 200 DMA, then it spent the rest of the day creeping up.
IYR (Real Estate) 63.67 the 7/12 swing low to hold. Subs: Over R1 would take a shot on this
USO (US Oil Fund) I love shorting oil. Only problem is intraday, there was no clear entry after the huge gap lower.Subs: If cannot clear today's high, will continue to look for a short (SCO is the ultrashort)
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Impressive rally off the lows. 38.27 is R1.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FRAN Provided 30.00 holds, once clears R1 31.18, could see a test of 2011 high 33.93 and beyond.
ASML Want to see 55 hold and clear R1 56.23. All-time high 56.17.
MMM (Daytrade only reports 7/26) 88.80 is now a good risk point to see if can make a run before its earnings.
SHW only one day under pivots. Has to hold 130.50 but could be a great mover especially if clears 134.
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ALXN Outperformed. Want to see 97.40 the FTP hold and clear 99.66
BEAM held the 50 DMA at 60.50 now good risk. Then through 61.30 clears R1
CF Like to see today's low hold and clear 200.50. Reports 8/02.
DDD (Daytrade only Reports 7/26) If holds 33.90, could see run to highs
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DG 51.80 now good risk, or the pivots. 52.94 clears R1
LEN Slightly negative pivots so now must clear 31.30 and hold 30.70.
TOL New highs for last 5 years. Now should hold 30.70.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
PCYC Max risk 48.50. Narrow range day and 5 days under pivots. Nees to clear R1 50.03
Phase Change: HON Outperformed with 2 days under pivots. Max risk 56.15, like to see R1 clear. JWN same-outperformed. Has to hold today's low and clear 52.65. HD Range expansion and back to bullish phase. Must hold 50.50 and through 51.38 takes out last week's high
Shorts: I do not list anything that has any RSI under 15.00
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EL 52.91 R1 max risk
FCX Got hit pretty hard but not oversold. Cannot cross 32.87
HOT Risk now 51.21 Reports Thursday
NKE 93.62 max risk
SLW (on list last week)-never broke above the 50 DMA. Now cannot break above today's high
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's low N/A
Bye for now!