Low volume and inside day in S&P 500 andRussell 2000, both with very different looking charts. In this mess of a market, the clearest thought that comes to mind, is to either buy SPY over Wednesday's high or be prepared to shortIWM under Wednesday's low (and anything else that has been under pressure but not oversold. NASDAQ has some post AAPL NFLX wounds to heal.
S&P 500 (SPY) Another day of negative pivots making Wednesday's high even more compelling to clearSubs: Lines up with R1
Russell 2000 (IWM) Over Wednesday's high also returns it back above the 200 DMA. Otherwise, more trouble
Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed bull phase with a DOJI-Not quite an inside day, but a follow the way the range breaks looks like a good plan Subs: Positive Pivots
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Aside unless it gaps above Wednesday's high
ETFs:
GLD Nice gap after we began to see signs of a rally on Tuesday. Subs: Booked 1.5 ATRs and now holding tail. Want to see 155 hold
XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery with the 200 DMA 14.12. Subs: Positive pivots but could not close over R1 so exited-going for safe rather than sorry these days. Now, over 14.35 will get back in
SMH (Semiconductors) Surprise mover today but until we get 2 closes over the 50 DMA, could be just some short covering as chart remains vulnerable. 30.50 remains pivotal
XRT (Retail) Subs: Oversold so do nothing unless it clears R1
IYR (Real Estate) Has to clear Wednesday's highs or could be vulnerable under 7/12 low-oversold though so tough short in bull phase
USO (US Oil Fund) Over Wednesday's highs and could fill gap to 34.00
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Market rolls over, always a good choice to find shorts
XLE (Energy) Subs: Inside day, negative pivots-follow the range break
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move. Note: In keeping with market, focused mainly on inside days.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EBAY 3 days under pivots with wall of support42.82. Should clear 43.30 then today's high
Category 2: (Pipeline)Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FRAN Should clear 30.25 hold 29.09
ESRX 57.28 is R1 the 10 DMA and over today's high
Category 3: (Double Up)Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ALXN On new all-time highs but since not overbought, if risk is reasonable could catch a miniswing trade
BIIB Range expansion. Comfortable with max risk 142. 147.49 all-time high
DTV Range Expansion. Like to see 47.25 hold. Over 48.00 clears the 10 DMA. Reports 08/02
PCYC Now, 50.16 R1 has to clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide)Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COST 93.11 max risk and would like to see 94.29 R1 clear
PM 86.57 is max risk, has to clear 87.71 then today's high
Phase Change: AVGO Inside day-moving averages converging-has to hold 33.65 and clear today's high. DO Inside day, positive pivots-has to clear today high and hold today's low.JPM Provided 34.80 holds, positive pivots and confirmed phase change to recovery GOOG 2 inside days while it holds the 200 DMA. Negative pivots so has to hold 604.55 S1 and ideally clear 609 then today's high MOS Positive pivots inside day so like to see today's high clear NE Inside day, positive pivots, like to see today's high clear and hold the lows
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CLR Reports 08/01. Cannot clear 70.44
CXO Cannot clear 83.13. Inside day.
EL Has to break 51.98 S1
PXD Reports 7/31. Cannot clear 88.92.
HAL Should not clear 31.75 or today's high. Good to go to if OIH is down
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NKE Cannot clear today's high and now needs to break 93.00 S1
Bye for now!