Appreciated the respite after last week's roller coaster ride. And, makes sense with a FED meeting coming up next couple of days. The respite also points towards positive digestion of the recent move considering the bull phase and good accumulation in volume last week.
S&P 500 (SPY) 139.00 remains a pivotal area after the gap fill from May.Subs: Still high RSI, positive pivots and even a possible slingshot to look out for. Watch S1 to hold.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Filled the gap to 79.81. 78.50 now support to hold and this continues to have more to prove. Subs: Positive pivots and back over 80.00 would follow
Dow (DIA) Under 130 would anticipate some more correction. Otherwise, 131.50 the overhead gap to fill
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Could not cross 65.31 last swing high. Under 64.00 and that will start to look like a new top; otherwise, above that would follow.
ETFs:
GLD Took a bit of a pause while silver went to town. 154.50 support 160.50 next resistance.
XLF (Financials) 14.85 last swing high. Inside day and would follow it above Friday's high. Subs:Will add over that area to existing long
IBB (Biotechnology) Anything can happen, but looks like the monthly close over 130 keeps a long term bull trend intact
SMH (Semiconductors) Back above 32.40 compelling after it retreats some from the 200 DMA
XRT (Retail) Inside day.
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Confirmed back to bull phase provided continues to hold the 200 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) 65.20 held and we respect that!
USO (US Oil Fund) Has an island top provided it does not clear 33.96.
OIH (Oil Services) Tight inside day even though now overbought
XLE (Energy) Also overbought in confirmed accumulation phase
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs:Inside day and 14.56 support to hold.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Inside day is a short-term trading pattern I always look for on digestion days. Today, I want ones not overbought, that outperformed the market and if not, has 2 days under the FTP or a positive stack.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN New highs for 2011 although closed red. Now, S1 233.28 important support to hold
PPG gapped after earnings. Has to clear 112.20 and hold 109.10. All-time high 114.62
MON Interesting doji day with multi-year high 87.77
FDX Inside day. Provided today's low holds, eyes on this one
TWC Like to see 85.00 hold with 86.30 all-time high to clear
AXP Has to hold 57.98
EWW Waiting for 63.85 to clear and now 62.79 should hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ARNA 9.23 max risk and should at least get above 9.41 then 9.60
Phase Change: HOG Confirmed warning phase. Should hold 44.13 and clear 45.00 ACE Bullish phase, inside day, positive pivots, has to hold 73.06 IR Inside day, positive pivots has to hold 41.74WFM Bull Phase, 2 days under pivots has to hold 90.83 (91.30 the 50 DMA), clear 92.10 then todays' high
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CTSH 58.54 good risk with 2 year low 53.54
EL 53 next support to break and should not clear 54.56
GD inside day. Cannot clear 63.97 and should break 63.08
NKE Cannot clear 97.24. The 10 DMA at 94.45 also needs to break
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
MCD cannot clear 89.70 and should break 89.07
CXO Inside day. Cannot clear today's high and should break 84.53
Bye for now!
