Since June 26th, Today (Thursday) was the first sign of perhaps the fun is subsiding, especially inS&P 500 as it closed under key pivots and posted a distribution day in volume. In contrast, NASDAQ had an accumulation day in volume although only marginally closed in the green. Let's face it, a correction would not be the worst thing. Furthermore, there is a lot of room to the downside before the current bull phase is tested.
Subs: Pivots on indexes now negative except in QQQ-Watch S1 and R1
S&P 500 (SPY)136.25 a first area of support to watch. Then, 134.85 the low of the gap higher next best support. Would not rule out more upside either, especially if crosses today's high.
Russell 2000 (IWM)Under 81.04 could see 79.10 next support. Not sure I would be chasing it up at these levels
Dow (DIA) 128.25 support then127.45
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 64.50 support to hold, then 63.50 big key. Otherwise, more upside not out of the question, but harder to chase as weekly relative strength is high
ETFs:
GLD Hanging onto the 50 DMA after the gap lower. Under 153.80 expect more pressure. Would change bias over 158
SLV Subs: Let's see what happens at the 10 DMA 26.46
XLF (Financials) 14.40 is the support I would like to see hold ending the week
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day.
SMH* (Semiconductors)Watching carefully since wedged between the exponential and 50 simple moving averages. One I would certainly follow over or under those MAs
IYT (Transportation) Bullish engulfing pattern yet not through last swing high at 94.66. Over that can see 96.00
IYR (Real Estate)If this cannot end the week above 64.90, I would expect more correction. Next best support 63.35 then 62.90
USO (US Oil Fund)Subs: Negative pivots which means under today's low, could see more downside with next support 30.80
OIH (Oil Services)Inside day. Subs: Another one with negative pivots after testing and now possibly failing the 50 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move. Note: Nothing on list with an RSI daily or weekly over 92.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CYH 4 day correction with the 10 DMA max risk at 26.28. Like to see the FTP hold at 27.20 and clear R1 27.62
EXPE Reports 7/26. Has to hold 47.56 the 10 DMA and clear first the FTP at 48.62, then R1 48.93
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
V Prefer Opening Range Reversal to control risk. On new highs
PPG Like to see 105 area hold and has to clear 106 to get real interesting
TRIP New high close and now has to hold 45.50
ULTA Has to hold today's low max risk
CRUS Sideways action near the highs. Bullish engulfing pattern. Has to hold 28.80 max risk. Reports 7/19
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change, Positive Pivots: AGP 4 days under pivots and landed on the 10 DMA at 63.84, now a great risk if it takes out the FTP at 64.49 then R1 65.06 TSLA Back above the 200 DMA with max risk today's low and positive pivots.YUM Like to see 64.30 hold. Positive Pivots
Shorts: Only ones in bear phases that could sell off if market does
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ANF 7 days above pivots which are now negative. Under 34.40 should not clear 35.17
CLF Cannot clear 50.31
CXO Cannot clear 88.67. Support at the 10 DMA 83.10
NBL Cannot clear 87.37. Reports July 26th
SLB reports 7/20. Cannot clear 66.90. Support 63.15
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
CELG Filled gap and now cannot clear 65.98 and should break 64.66
CMI Inside day and has to break today's low and not clear 100.45 R1
Goodnight!