Featured ETFS:
SMH Although it closed down on the day, it held prior day low and the early opening range reversal. Now, if it continues to hold above 34.25 and takes out today's high 34.54, it seems more likely now that it will find the momentum to get back above the 50 DMA at 34.81. Otherwise, still has strong underlying support at 33.50.
SLV The long position from 34.15 had good follow through. It stopped at the 70 EMA now at 35.33. The 50 DMA is still declining. Today's low is now a support area to hold in order for SLV to gather enough momentum to get to and trade above the 50 DMA at 36.15.
GLD gapped up over the 50 DMA. 150.18-.56 is the overhead gap to fill. GLD is back in an unconfirmed bullish phase as we look for 2 consecutive closes above a key moving average to confirm a phase change. On the weekly chart, it is highly possible that we could see a move at least up to 154 and possibly beyond.
FXE coming into this week I wrote about a possible correction and strengthening of the dollar considering that the Euro could not get through 1.45. Now, today's low touched the 70 day exponential moving average inFXE. UUP held 21.19 the low from last Thursday. Now it is above the 50 DMA at 21.37. A second close above that level will confirm into a recovery phase. Looking ahead, on a weekly basis, if UUP manages to get above 22, we could see a significant strengthening of the dollar.
XLF after an inside day yesterday, today it broke the previous day low early in the morning, then worked back up to close right at prior day low. Above 15.50, especially on a weekly close, will clear the 50 weekly moving average. But, in order for the financials to really get going, must get back above the 200 day moving average now at 15.69.
XLE if this holds around 76, good intraday support. The daily chart is still setup well with next resistance up at 77.66.
XRT and IYT both tackled all time highs on an intraday basis yet closed just below. With most ETF's, the closing price is more important than an intraday chart point. Therefore, would like to see both of these close on new highs on a weekly basis, otherwise we could see these begin to retreat.
Picks: None of tonight's selections are overbought on the 2-Day RSI. Another note is that with the market in a bullish phase, I become less focused on how the pivot points are stacked when a Condition 1 stock has two days under the floor trader pivot. This is the case for stocks that are in a Condition 1 only as they are set up for potential parabolic moves. The Nuggets list contains these short-term trading patterns. Our Complete Swing Trading System Course goes into all of the specifics.
Longs: Lots of great Opening Range Reversals today-CRM CAT VMW AAPL, etc. If you are new to the service, I recommend you review videos in the archive that go over this strategy, including today's video. Also established longs in UHS JOYG and short WHR. We continue to raise stops in the positions that are deep in the money.
BWA*back on the list because it is a Condition 1 stock with two days under the floor trader pivot. The 10 day moving average is at 79 which is a great risk for either a mini or swing trade provided it takes out and holds above 80.37 where the FTP is. It also needs to clear today's high and R1 at 80.97. All-time high 82.28. Above all time highs looking for a move up to over 100. Day to swing.
NVLS*another Condition 1 stock with two days under the floor trader pivot. The 10 day moving average is at 35.22, the risk point for any new swing entry. The FTP comes in at 36.05. Once this clears last week's high at 36.96, has some minor resistance at 38.40. All-time high made in March at 41.82. Day to swing
COL here is a stock that is not in a Condition 1 since the 10 day moving average has yet to cross above the 200 and the 50 DMA. However, it now has two inside days in a row and is trading above the 50 day moving average with positive pivots after two days beneath the FTP. Above the 62.09, swing traders will have to risk down the low 61.15, mini swing traders can use 61.76. On the weekly chart, a close above 62.80 and we could see a move up to the February high 67.29. Mini to swing.
CELG inside day today. Above 60.55, with positively stacked FTP, a good risk down to be 10 day moving average at 60.06 with yesterday's low 60.02. If this can clear all of the resistance up at 60.99 and close above 61, this should go on to the next overhead resistance made in 2010 at 65.79. The 50 weekly moving average crossed above the 200 weekly moving average a couple of weeks ago. Mini to swing.
IFF*another Condition 1 stock with two days under the floor trader pivot. The FTP is at 64.35. Not a big stock, but if this can clear R1 and today's high at 64.56, the next resistance is up at all-time highs made in May at 66.29. Above that a projected move to 71. Mini to swing
AET*inside day with positive pivots. The FTP is at 44.85. The 10 day moving average is at 44.26, a good risk. If can clear 45.40 on a closing basis, has minor resistance at 46, better resistance up at all-time high made in 2007 at 60. Mini to swing
VRX* inside day with positive pivots. The 10 day moving average is at 52. 53.55 is the FTP. Tight risk is under today's low 53.18, swing risk under the 10 day. Once this clears 55, especially on a weekly basis all-time high was made in 2010 at 64.90. Day to swing.
TSLA*a Condition 1 stock with two days under the floor trader pivot. The FTP is at 28.90. The 10 day moving average is underneath at 28.26 and a perfect risk for a swing. If it holds above 28.90, daytraders can also use today's low 28.55 for a tighter risk. Once this clears 29.24 R1, has overhead resistance, but has been building a base since April. On the weekly chart, has to clear 31.50, with all time high made in 2010 at 36.42. Day to swing.
NETL has two days under the floor trader pivot. The 10 day moving average is underneath at 39.79, a good risk. The FTP comes in at 40.35. If that holds and it takes out R1 at 40.65, see a resumption of the rally with overhead resistance near all-time high made at 43.70. Above that and it could continue to 55. Day to swing.
Shorts: if the market stays firm, I would not be looking to go short. However, if the market begins to correct, these are the weaker stocks and ETF's to look at.
MOS the 200 weekly moving average is at 67.51. If the market begins strongly correct, this would be a good one to look at for short. But with the 200 weekly moving average so close, unless it breaks would stand aside.
DO unless this breaks the 200 daily moving average 69.85, would also stand aside.
FXI Has to break 200 weekly moving average at 41.97.
GS has to break the 10 day moving average at 132.84.
Goodnight!