If you used the proper position sizing and risk management, many of the long picks turned out to be profitable such as ORLY which had not only an opening range reversal but also an opening range breakout, AMGN, LULU on an opening range reversal, and YUM on an opening range reversal. Only CELG was the fake out. Although we bought AAPL, we lost very little using the floor trader pivot to manage the risk. Other than MOS, which touched S3 then bounced, the other recommended shorts signaled, but the risk was too great. And if there's any reason why one should consider risk versus reward, just look where some of those short recommendations wound up--right at the point where you would've gotten short making them ultimately not worth it.
SPY had an accumulation day in volume, the first time since May 31. Plus, it held the 200 day moving average now at 125.97. I'm still not happy about the declining slope on the 50 day moving average so I'm not ready to get too excited about a possible bottom. But, looking at the volume patterns, yesterday's spike in volume followed by today's attempt at lower prices followed by an impressive comeback on big volume at the end of the day, at least gives me pause for a possible correction and an opportunity to sell into another rally.
QQQ a very different picture. Confirmed now in a distribution phase with a distribution day in volume. The pressure of the Chinese stocks and now I'm afraid, a further declining RIMM after disappointing earnings in the after market, is giving NASDAQ a very tough time indeed. The March low 53.77 was penetrated today on an intraday basis even though we closed above it.
IWM held the 200 day moving average and although it had the biggest percentage of gain, which we anticipated in last nights blog, it could not close above the floor trader pivot. Now, if cannot hold above 78.12 where the floor trader pivot is tomorrow and rally past 79.00 where R1 is and then breaks 77.30 S1, I will be looking once again to the ultrashort TWM which stopped exactly at Monday's high today.
ETF's: XRT** put up a good fight but now we have a declining 50 day moving average once again and a close beneath the 10 day moving average of 50.22. If it opens beneath 50.12 the FTP, can use 50.22 and whatever the opening range high as is resistance in anticipation that it will sell off down to the 200 day moving average now at 47.60.
IBB has a neutral slope on the 50 day moving average after today's activity plus a close beneath the 70 exponential. Again this would not be one that I would necessarily look to short, but at this point would only be buying if it can hold above 102.33. Ultimately it needs to clear 103.28 where R1 is.
SMH broke the 200 closing beneath yet hanging onto the March 16 low at 32.32. If we cannot rally from this level than that will also start to look heavier than it already does.
XLF held 14.63 and closed up on the day. The financials still have the power to keep the market from completely falling apart therefore will be watching 15.00 and if we cannot get through there, will look at buying FAZ over 52.
GLD had an inside day today. Over 149.53 should resume the move up. But, also could be forming a bear flag which would breakdown under today's low 148.22 making the 50 day moving average 147.20 a reasonable first target. SLV** also had an inside day today and on the daily chart, is still weaker than GLD so if it cannot get above 35.07, the high of this week, and breaks down beneath 34.28, will anticipate a move down to 32 area.
The Euro held 1.42. I've been writing that that is an important support level against the dollar. Now, will be watching to see whether 1.42 holds and if so what happens the next time the Euro gets to 1.44.
Picks:
CVX**oil prices stabilized today and this held not only the 160 day exponential moving average at 97.20 but critical support on the daily chart at 97.60. Plus it closed with a bullish engulfing pattern. Tomorrow, the pivots will be positive which means it will be a candidate for either an opening range reversal using the risk to the support levels or an opening range breakout especially if it can cross back above 99.84 where the 10 day moving average lies. We could be looking at a rally up to 101.75 or higher. But again, we are looking for a short lived rally as the slope on the 50 day moving average is still decidedly down. Day to mini
TSL might be setting up for another shot on the long side especially since it now has two days under the floor trader pivot. Plus today was a DOJI day. To be conservative, would not risk more than to under today's low 19.31 and take a shot above the floor trader pivot 19.90. If this can cross back above 20.50, then I would wager that we could see a rally to 22 fairly quickly. Day to mini
BEAV*yesterday's low at 37.20, today's low 37.31. Pivots will be stacked positive tomorrow which means this will be another candidate for buy on an opening range reversal against the support and the 50 day moving average at 37.10. 37.73 is where the FTP is. Similar to the AMGN trade, if it opens above the pivot and takes out a five minute opening range, could look to buy and watch to see what happens over today's high 38.10 which is also very close to R1 at 38.14. Recent high was made at 40.81 with better resistance back from 2008 at 43.30. Day to swing
CL** I almost put this on last night's list, but declined to because the pivots were negative. Now, the pivots are positive and today was an inside day. Another candidate for an opening range reversal with the FTP at 86.38 and today's low 85.79. Otherwise, to buy on strength must clear above today's high 86.73. Recent high was made at 87.58 and on the weekly chart, if we get through that, we are on new all time highs with a possible projected move up to 100. Nothing is impermeable to a huge selloff in the market, but if the market is firm this has huge potential. Day to swing.
AET**two days under the floor trader pivot which will be stacked negative, but the daily chart is still strong and today it closed above the 10 day moving average at 43.10. Tomorrow the FTP is at 43.04, can buy above especially with an opening range breakout and use 42.72 where S1 is as a conservative risk. If this can get going, multiyear high was made at 46. Next resistance at 47.50. Day to swing.
GS*inside day and positive pivots with the FTP at 135.73. Today's low which is a good risk is at 134.15. Can be bought on an opening range reversal or a hold above the FTP. If this can get through 137.30 would be looking at a move up to 140 as next target and possibly up to 142. Day to mini
NFLX got badly beaten up today, but tested and held the upward sloping 50 day moving average at 246.15. Has two days under the floor trader pivot which is definitely stacked negative. The FTP comes in tomorrow at 250.42. Therefore, might take a shot on half a position over the FTP with a choice of risks. Swing traders can use under today's low 244.26 mini swing traders can use under the 50 day moving average 246.15 and day traders can use under the last half an hour low 246.93 or an intraday low tomorrow.. Day to mini
MCP is my wild pick based on oversold conditions and two attempts at the 200 day moving average at 45.86. Has two days under the floor trader pivot which comes in tomorrow at 48.29. Over the FTP have choice of risks. Swing traders may want to try the 200 day moving average, mini swing traders under today's low and daytraders under the last half hour low at 47.80. Overhead resistance is 53.29 better overhead resistance up at 55.50 to 56. Day to swing
Shorts:
For tomorrow, I would look at the ETF's and ultra-shorts mentioned above is the best short potentials. Otherwise a lot of my recent choices now look oversold.
WHR I will keep this on the list since it rallied today off of the 200 weekly moving average at 72.91. Overhead resistance now at 75.66. With the pivots positive tomorrow would not short above that number, but if it comes in below 74.73 the FTP and breaks S1 at 74.10, you might get a decent entry in anticipation of it failing the 200 weekly in which case we are then looking at a move down to 71. Day to mini.
Goodnight!
