Rallies met with selling do not bottoms make. On the other hand, after all the awful news this week, market continues to hold the last swing lows. And so May ends-indecisive with mixed internals. Tough trading yet great learning for those who apply rules and discipline along with a plan.
S&P 500 (SPY)The 65-weekly moving average is next at 129.35 level which also corresponds near the May 18th low. Subs: Over R1 132.54 would look better
Russell 2000 (IWM) Best case is that this tested and closed above the 200 DMA. Subs: Over R1 76.80 could be in for a good end of the week into the next one
Dow (DIA) 122.35 next support unless it clears 124.70
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held an exponential moving average again. Want to see it get back through 62.45 or 59.75 in the cards.
ETFs:
GLD December 2011 low and May 2012 low creating a possibility of a double bottom, but that has to prove itself out. Subs: That means we need a move above R1 152.68
XLF (Financials) 13.70 last swing low and just beneath the 200 DMA which held. 14.23 the week high.
IBB (Biotechnology) 123 the 50 DMA-tested and holding so far
SMH (Semiconductors)Confirmed distribution phase unless can get back over the 200 DMA
XRT (Retail) Unless it clears Thursday high, looks heavy
IYR (Real Estate) 60.00 support to hold. Over today's high encouraging
USO (US Oil Fund) I am waiting for gas to get cheaper-this certainly has. Now oversold
XLE (Energy) Tested the 80 monthly so curious to see if finds some support down here
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SWI After new highs, big correction. Want to see return over 46.87
QCOR Like over today's high and R1
EW DOJI day. Cannot break today's low and should clear 86.00
EQIX Closed above pivots but negative stack. Should hold 160.50 clear 165.75
BBBY 71.35 max risk and should clear 73.04 if still has legs
TRIP Today's low max risk. Should clear today's high
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GNC Must hold 38.35 clear 39.10
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN Nice bounce off of 50 DMA. Should hold 211. Has some resistance at 214.80 the 10 DMA
PPG Held the 10 DMA. Now 101.40 max risk.
AOL Should hold 27.10 the 10 DMA-signaled today
FDO Like to see 67.55 hold-signaled today
ROST Entry today but a reversal not too late
VECO Negative stack pivots closed on them. Has to clear 35.13-signaled today
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ALXN not oversold, but as long as 90.20 holds, R1 is 92.45
BIIB Oversold Like to see 131.70 clear
Slingshots:EQT Held 200 weekly 80 monthly. Needs to hold 45.79LO New 60-day low. Must hold 122 and clear 124.39RHT Only if clears 51.78 AAPL Still in strong warning phase but positive pivots so worth watchingKLAC Must clear 46.60
Shorts: Remember theQEP trade? Like all shorts, once recommend near a retracement to the 50 or 200 DMA, can stay in for swing. Entry May 10 on OR high failure at 30.35 yields 4 ATRs today-exit on chandelier exit
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
GDX Cannot clear 44.70
MOS Cannot clear 48.29
NAV Cannot clear 28.20
SNDK Cannot clear 33.50
ADSK Cannot clear 32.39
CSTR In a warning phase against the 50 DMA which means cannot clear 62.43
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
N/A
Goodnight!