Those of you who carried home several of the recommended longs from last week such as BIIB, CL, MCP, had a good start to the day. Then, with a relatively orderly open, we had an opportunity to get into longCELG, AET, TIF and short GS.
Now, SPY closed up .5% not only holding the 200 day moving average but also Friday's low however, could not take out the highs from last Thursday and Friday over 127.97. With no significant volume pattern, must now see a move above these recent highs or it will look like another short-lived rally. Then, look for signs of it rolling over with the possibility of eventually taking out the 200 day moving average.
QQQ in its weaker distribution phase, also closed up on the day and held last Thursday and Friday lows, and notably had an inside day. That means that a break now beneath 53.62 would not be healthy.
IWM at this point can go either way as the 50 day moving average continues to decline in slope, yet the price pattern is in consolidation. Over 79.68 last week's high and we should go up to the adaptive moving average at 80.21. But under 77.83 last Friday's low, similar to SPY, we will not only test the 200 day moving average but most likely trade beneath it.
ETF's: XRT was indeed the bright spot closing up 1.7%. Somewhat troubling is the lack of volume. Now, 51.13 which was last Friday's hi corresponds well with the adaptive moving average of 51.07. If this can stay up over the 51 area that would be positive and most likely means that we would continue to see a move up at least to test the 50 day moving average at 52.23. But, if it breaks 51, our beacon will start to dim.
Equally bright was IYR. Similarly, if it holds above 59.77 we could possibly see more movement to the upside with the 50 day moving average at 60.52.
SMH had an inside day remaining in its current distribution phase with light volume. IBB also had an inside day. Both of those ETF's will be -worth keeping an eye on as clues for next direction.
SLV**has held up over the last several days but remains in a warning phase. It is possible that we are beginning to see the formation not only of a bear flag but also a trendline coming up from the low made on May 12. Also notable is that the gap left from the drop on June 13 was filled today. If this comes in beneath 35 where the FTP is, even though the pivots will be stacked positive, that drop coupled with an opening range high failure, could have a low risk short using a move above 35.22 as a risk.
FXI** tried to rally but closed beneath the 200 weekly moving average at 42.03. Now that the pivots will be stacked negatively tomorrow, would consider going short beneath the floor trader pivot at 41.92 and can use a stop above today's high 42.04 for a low risk trade.
TLT if there is one thing that can help the market from selling off, it's declining interest rates. Looking at TLT, the 50 DMA crossed over the 160 exponential and looks like it is approaching a cross over the 200 although still a bit of distance away. The 10 day moving average is at 95.64 just above today's low. If the price remains above that level I would not be surprised to see this ETF climb up first to 97.72 and more likely 99.27. Although hard to believe, just looking at the technical formation, it does seem that the interest rates are indeed headed lower.
So there you have it. Lots of negative indications, some charts going completely counter and continued volatility which is keeping our trading momentum based, taking profits along the way and keeping risks relatively tight.
Picks: A recent strategy has been to try to catch early momentum, lock in profits and reduce overnight exposure. Furthermore, I continue to recommend longs on charts that have positive slopes on the 50 day moving average along with positive floor trader pivot's for the following day. And, recommend shorts with the opposite scenario. Went home with a small position in BEAV, AET (already locked in some profit) andCRM. GS was the recommended short and one worth taking home. BG had positive pivots and closed above Friday's low. Although it closed in my favor and certainly within the guidelines of a mini swing trade, I covered and will look again. If I do not repeat a recommedation that appeared on the day before's list, it does not mean I am not still interested. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to ask.
DISH**not a big ATR .58, but an upward sloping 50 day moving average, an inside day, and pivots that will be stacked positive. 27.78 is the FTP tomorrow with the 50 day moving average just beneath today's low at 27.47. The overall chart formation shows a stock that has held up once it gapped higher in early May. The last several days shows consolidation. Has to clear the 10 day moving average at 28.15 which corresponds with last week's high of 28.19 and over tomorrow's R1 at 28.05. Would consider buying this on an opening range reversal with the positive pivots or on an opening range breakout if it clears those areas. On a weekly chart multiyear highs were made in early June at 30.50 next overhead resistance at 32. Day to swing.
CRM bought this for a mini swing trade on the basis of it holding above the 50 day moving average which is sloping upward. Today it had a DOJI day and has 2 inside days in a row. If tomorrow it takes out 140.38, it clears recent highs and the 10 day moving average. Otherwise,I will keep my stop under today's low along with the 30 min OR low if it cannot follow through to the upside. First Target, if can hang in there, is 143.50. After that, provided the market doesn't fall apart, can see 151. Day to Mini
HLF**After 3 days under the FTP, today it cleared the pivots and had an inside day. Now, it must clear today's high and 53.58 to continue to the upside with a risk to 52.43 Friday' low. An intraday point that daytraders can use is the FTP at 53.16 which is positively stacked. A close above the 10 DMA and we could see 57.37, recent high with a projected target of 59.50 on the weekly chart. Day to Mini
MA* Bullish Engulfing pattern and inside day. Slope on the 50 now turned up even though price is trading beneath. The 10 DMA is at 269.77 with today's high 270.66. With positive pivots and the FTP at 268.68 can buy against the pivots if holds or above the 10 DMA depending on how it opens. Would not risk more than under today's low at 265.37. Overhead resistance at the 50 DMA at 274.44 a good first target. Weekly chart looks better than the daily. If the market firms up, can see a move back up to recent highs with major resistance at 290.Day to mini
CVI* Had an inside day and is trading above the 10 DMA which crossed above the 50 DMA last week. 21.76 is a great place to buy against or risk down to. The pivots are negative tomorrow, so would like to see it move and hold above the FTP at 22.36. Then, it can rally to multi year high made in April at 24.38 and possibly beyond. Day to mini
GMCR* I usually like to see 2 days under the FTPs if a stock is holding the moving averages and nicely stacked and sloped as this one is before I recommend a new entry. Friday, it closed on the FTP so it's marginal. The pivots are negative but that is not as important considering the 10 DMA is at 77.87 with today's low78.85. The FTP is at 79.77. Depending on how this opens, above the FTP use today's low as a risk. Below, wait to see what happens closer to the 10 DMA. Overall, this chart looks strong with the likelihood of it continuing on to new highs. The weekly chart has the Bollinger band at 91.85. Day to swing.
PCLN The buy on weakness pick. There was no reason to enter today, but it did hold last week's low and remains oversold. Plus, it held the 160 EMA at 452.93. The pivots are negative so it must clear 458.63, the FTP tomorrow and to stay in the trade also clear R1 at 465.60. If this firms we could even see a move up to 480 or the 10 DMA at 486. Daytrade
Shorts: If the indexes break the key levels indicated, make sure to look at the ultrashorts.
SNDK**Had an inside day today after a huge move down on Friday. Pivots now negative tomorrow with the FTP coming in at 41.48. Today's high is the risk should it break the pivots or 41.97. The last spike low was in March at 41.10 but since this is now beneath the 50 weekly moving average, better support at 40.23-an old gap to fill and then 35. Day to mini
FCX**Entered a Death Cross today and closed below Friday's low. Nearing oversold conditions, but with negative pivots and an FTP at 47.70, if cannot get above that level, would short and use 48.28, today's high as a risk. On the weekly has some support at 45.70, after that, looks like could get down to 40. Day to swing
BG* As mentioned earlier, I covered the short today but am still very interested. Now, the pivots are negative with the FTP at 65.33. Today's high at 65.73 is a close risk with the 200 DMA overhead at 66.61. Only caveat is that it is now holding the 50 weekly moving average at 64.75. If this cannot break beneath, then would cover as it will begin to look oversold. Day to mini
Note about WHR- is a great study of a stock that held the 200 weekly moving average at the same time it had a death cross. It is also a great study of how we NEVER shorted because it never gave us reason to using our rules.
Goodnight!
