Beginning again with IWM, there continues to be mixed signals. On the one hand we have the continuing decline of the 50 day moving average, a close beneath the adaptive moving average at 80.21 yet still above yesterday's low 79.42 ending with an interesting hammer candle. Therefore, although the warning phase continues to accelerate, using 80.20 as pivotal, if this rallies above, there is still the possibility that we could see a move up to test the 50 day moving average at 82.27. However, a break of 80.01 and we could see a test of the underlying support at 78.90. Furthermore, the pivots are positive. So also watch for a move above 80.39 where the FTP is.
SPY once again stopped short of the adaptive moving average now at 129.70 also with a declining 50 day moving average. As far as volume patterns go, none of the indexes had any significant pattern; in fact considering it was FED day, lighter than average volume all-around. SPY similar to IWM is above consolidation from last week. Looking at SPY, there is underlying support at 128, and longer-term trend is still positive. A break of and failure to get above 129.02 the FTP, yet another sign of weakness but with the underlying support, I would not be surprised to see choppy, range bound market action for the next couple of days.
QQQ stopped right on the 200 day moving average again today which actually confirmed it back into a warning phase after being in a distribution phase. Therefore, this index might be the most decisive tomorrow either holding above 54.81, taking out the floor trader pivot at 55 which is positively stacked and continuing to rally or, failing today's high and the FTP, trading beneath 200 day moving average and retesting the recent levels of support down at 53.60 area.
ETF's: SLV bought some in the money and slightly out of the money puts in anticipation that this will drop first to support at around 34.50 and more likely back to test the recent support at 32. The 50 day moving average is sharply declining, it has been unable to get above the adaptive moving average and today was the first time in a while it closed on a 30 minute opening range failure. However, since the floor trader pivots are positive tomorrow, a move above today's high is a good risk point. Like with the indexes, considering the mixed indicators, trading with flexibility.
GLD had a DOJI day. Another possible strategy is to sell puts in GLD against SLV long puts since this remains in a strong bullish phase.
XLF got closer to a death cross with the 50 nearing the 200 day moving average. We were unable to get through the last swing high of 15.19 back from June 14. One possible positive is that the pivots are stacked well tomorrow which could mean another stab at the highs if things firm up, particularly if it crosses above 15.05.
XRT could not confirm back into a bullish phase closing beneath the 50 day moving average. This would be another good one to watch for direction tomorrow since a move above 55.25 and could make another run however below 51.61 where S1 is could spell trouble.
The other leading ETF's such as SMH, XLE, OIH and IYR all have equally mixed indicators at this time.
TLT** now has two days under the floor trader pivot which comes in tomorrow at 96.70. That will also be above the 10 day moving average. As the overall chart formations still looks like it has potential for a rally, can buy over the FTP and risk today's low at 96.41.
Finally, EURUSD continues to test the upper end of the range with resistance between 1.44 and 1.45. Clearly, 1.42 has proven itself as good intermediate support.
Today, we exited most long positions and are mainly in cash awaiting clearer signals.
Picks:
BIIB swing traders are still in this from 92.70. But what is interesting for tomorrow is after yesterday's bearish engulfing pattern, today it had an inside day and now has two days under the floor trader pivot. Over 99.68 could either risk to under this week's low 98.60 or today's low 98.90. But, for new entries, this must clear yesterdays high 101.83 to show signs of strength and the possibility of continuing up to the recent highs at 106.99. And since the pivots are positive, might also try an opening range reversal against this week's low. Day to swing
SGEN**this has steadily rallied since the end of April making a new high on Monday at 20.46. Today it ended with an inside day. The 10 day moving average is below at 19.67 so this is one that could be bought on weakness against the 10 day moving average, with positive pivots on an opening range reversal or possibly on strength above 20.03 with the conservative risk to under today's low 19.99. On the weekly chart, once it broke out of consolidation over 18 a while back, has a measured move up to about 23. Day to swing
AMGN forming a wedge with convergence coming between the 10 and the 50 day moving averages. The slope on the 50 is up, slope on the 10 is down. So we would only be looking for an entry above 58.20 with a risk to recent low at 57.78 or more conservatively today's low 57.93. If this can get above today's high 58.50, could see a rally up to its next resistance at 59.70 with better resistance at 60.80 the multiyear high made on May 19 at 61.53. On the weekly chart, last swing high was made in 2009 at 64.76. Day to swing.
BBBY up in the aftermarket about 2%. If this opens above 54.60 above R1 and the 50 day moving average, can use the floor trader pivot at 54.04 as a conservative risk. Otherwise, if it comes in above 54.90, that will be a nice gap higher which means can use either a two minute opening range fade or follow. Can also look at an opening range reversal. All-time high in this stock was made in May at 56.63. A decent and reasonable target is 60. Day to mini
CLF not a bad one to look and if the market firms as the pivots are positive, the weekly chart still bullish, and after holding and testing the 200 day moving average, is now above the 10 SMA and 160 EMA. Above 84.77, the FTP, has a really tight risk to under today's low 84.09. Overhead resistance at 88 for now. Day to mini.
APKT I would only consider on strength since it not only needs to clear the floor trader pivot at 63.43 but also the 10 day moving average and today's high at 64.77. If so, can use the FTP as a risk. Above yesterday's highs 65.65 looks like we could see rally up to about 70. Day to mini.
REGN* never got above the 30 minute opening range or R1 therefore no entry today. But, it continues to hold the low from Monday at 52.50 with now five days under the floor trader pivot since making a high on June 15 at 61.05. Plus, the 50 day moving average continues to slope up. Can try this again and buy above 53.14 and a risk to 52.50. However, must clear today's high at 53.88 which also clears the 50 day moving average. Then, the 10 day moving average is above that at 54.69. Still has the possibility of rallying up to 62 resistance on the weekly chart. Day to mini.
CMG if this can get above the positively sloped FTP at 286.28, a low risk is today's low at 284.42. This also has interesting hammer candle. The overall chart formation is promising with all time high made on May 31 at 295.95. With positive pivots this is another one I would consider for an opening range reversal as well. Day to mini
Note: UNH, GMCR and FTO all near the highs. Can keep an eye out for opening range reversals to control risk.
Written Eve June 20th-CVI* Had an inside day and is trading above the 10 DMA which crossed above the 50 DMA last week. 21.76 is a great place to buy against or risk down to. The pivots are negative tomorrow, so would like to see it move and hold above the FTP at 22.36. Then, it can rally to multi year high made in April at 24.38 and possibly beyond. Day to mini Closed today at 24.34
Shorts:
GS today was the day to get short once it broke beneath the opening range. However it held previous day low so it's not too late. If this cannot trade above 135.57 where the negatively stacked FTP is, especially if it breaks down under the recent consolidation of 134, should continue to move lower with its most recent support at 131.50. Last year's low 129.50. Day to mini
CME went home short since it closed beneath the FTP. With positive pivots tomorrow, like to see it stay below 282.17 and break down under 279.33 where S1 is. Then, looking at a move down to recent low at 268.30. Otherwise, have stop over today's high at 285 for a mini swing for now. Day to mini.
WHR finally began to breakdown today and closed on the lows. Now, the pivots are negative. Look to sell against 77.52 using the same 78.23 risk as we have had for the last two days. Underlying support at the 10 day moving average at 75.34. Day to swing.
BG also began to breakdown today back under the 200 day moving average but still resting on the 50 weekly moving average. Now has negative pivots which means can try going short against 66.50 with a stop above today's highs 67.39 or above 66.72 the 200 day moving average. However, this still must breakdown beneath 64.77 to stay in short position for more than a day or mini swing trade.
Goodnight!
