Hope traders had their seatbelts on and fastened. A historical day in U.S. history and a day where a trading plan was even more paramount than usual. Most interesting pattern to note on all indexes (except NASDAQ 100) is that they closed at a higher price than where they opened. (Bullish Candles in a still Strong Warning Phase)
S&P 500 (SPY)133.56 still resistance. The 200 DMA most critical support. Big distribution day in volume with an "anything can happen" from here scenario in the works. Subs: Negative Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM)77.35 area the fast moving average now resistance. If holds from here, could get interesting as 78 is a big point to clear. Held the 200 DMA which is the best indication that a rally is not out of question Subs:Pivots Negative
Dow (DIA) 123.60 the 200 DMA with the low on Thursday interim support. The fast moving average now resistance. Subs: Pivots Negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The weakest index, found support at the lows from the beginning of June when it gapped up. Held nearly to the tick. Resistance at the fast moving averageSubs: Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Bearish Bias correct in metals and commodities in general. SLV broke critical support
XLF (Financials) Stunning comeback end of day holding the 200 DMA and closing right at the fast moving average. Would follow above Wednesday's high Subs: Still long
IBB (Biotechnology) Big giant, big fall. Has to set up again by holding the 50 DMA. Giving this time
XRT (Retail) Held up well all things considered and holding the 200 DMA. Yet still underperformed thereby vulnerable
IYT (Transportation)Impressive rally off the 200 DMA and closed in the green!Subs: Long for swing
IYR (Real Estate)Smoking move over the 50 DMA. Been on top of this all month
USO (US Oil Fund) Got that new short opportunity on Thursday. Not yet oversold either.
XLE (Energy) Looks a lot better than oil now, especially since it closed in the green
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT closed on the low end of the day's range-could be a tell-tale sign of next direction. 125.90 is the number to hold
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: X(up 11% in 2 days)
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ROSG 4 days under the FTP. Has to clear 11.63, then today's high and hold today's low
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TOL Approaching overbought on daily RSI, but as long as it holds around 28.00 could have more upside
TWC Inside day and good risk to under today's low
AMP (Not a condition) Over Wednesday high, 91.00, could power through the 160 EMA and the 65 weekly MA. Risk is 50.25
IMAX has to hold 23.23 max risk
AOL Has to hold today's low
COST Tried to hang in there, got stopped out, now stunning range expansion. Reversal preferred
PPG Condition 2. Great rally end of day. Negative pivots so want to see it hold 102.90.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change, Positive Pivots: CVXLike to see 103 hold XOM max risk today's lowCOF Over the 10 DMA 53.50 most powerful but positiveWPI Max risk today's low NXPI 20.97 good risk nowSPG Like to see 150 hold FDX Unconfirmed bull phase has to hold 88.10 the 50 DMA KSU Back to warning phase, bullish engulfing pattern. Want to see 66.75 hold
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
YOKU Under the 200 DMA and cannot cross 21.35
RIO Cannot cross 45.83
MCD Swing traders still in. Otherwise, cannot cross 88.50
CLF Cannot cross 47.74
RHT O.R. High failure only against 54.36
HLF Cannot cross 47.61
INFY Cannot cross 43.19
WYNN Cannot cross 103.36
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows N/A
Goodnight!