The Emini S&P continuous contract@ES, closed above the 200 DMA. S&P 500(SPY), DOW (DIA) and Russell 2000(IWM) did not. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) held the 200 DMA and continues to look like our best bet to watch for next direction-lead or drag.
S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed the Distribution phase. 128.70 the 200 DMA. Subs: R1 128.91 to be sure.
Russell 2000 (IWM) A move back over 74.40 would give a better reason to believe another test of the 200 DMA is imminent. 70.00 the monthly moving average.
Dow (DIA) Unless clears today's high, in which case we look at the 200 DMA, pressure continues
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Encouraging that this held the 200 DMA. Also had an accumulation day in volume although overall volume is lighter than average. Subs: R1 now 61.20 and pivots negative
ETFs:
GLD Over 158, assume rally continues, and unless it breaks under 155, assume dips are buy opportunities.Subs: Long. Stop under today low
XLF (Financials) Sobering here, especially as JP Morgan continues the descent. Broke 2012 (13.38) low by a little.
IBB (Biotechnology) Some sign of relief. Could be just worked off the oversold condition. We shall see.
SMH (Semiconductors) Over 30.22 would be nice to see but right now, struggling and oversold
XRT (Retail) Watch 57.00 for resistance a good place to think more bounce
IYT (Transportation) This sector dropped like a stone last summer. Now, confirmed distribution phase and not looking too healthy
IYR (Real Estate) 58.00 next support
USO (US Oil Fund) 30.93 2010 low. 29.10 the 2011 low. Plus this is very oversold. Subs:Starter position long and an inside day to watch for an add over the highs or stop under the lows
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SHW Negative pivots, closed on the FTP. If holds 124.50 area, looking at the recent highs at least
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WFM Has to hold 85.40 and close over 87.23 to stick
EW 4 days under pivots. Must clear 85.48 and hold 83.00
BBBY Only interested if clears back over the 10 DMA 71.75 and closes there
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BIIB 129.85 the 50 DMA now needs to hold
EQIX Inside day. Must hold today's low.
AMZN Starting to look like a stock dominating the book world. Like to see 211 hold now. Changed to a condition 3
AOL Back to condition 1 as it continues to consolidate. Should hold 27.00
FDO Has to hold today's low
QCOR Return to condition 1. Like to see 41.55 clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SWI Oversold and on the 50 DMA. Max risk now 42.25
Others: TRIP Inside day holding gap.
Slingshots: CRMand on the 200 DMA. Great risk to today's low if holds here.
Long: NFLXMust hold 63.73 clear 68.00) MCP 19.80 support. Has to clear 20.50
Shorts: Sunday I wrote thatEQT if could not hold 44.64 it was a short. Broke that and the 30 min and followed through-good to note
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
WYNN Cannot clear 99.33
SFLY Cannot clear 26.45
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NTAP Cannot clear 30.55
Goodnight