Everyone go to your calendars and remove last Friday from it. That 280 point drop was cancelled by today's 286 point rally. And so we have been saying here at Marketgauge-long term bull trend intact, short term bearish until further notice. You've been served. Oh yes-and stay tuned since tomorrow Ben Bernanke speaks at 10:00 AM.
S&P 500 (SPY) Let's see what happens at 132.50. Then, the 50 DMA becomes a more realistic target. We got an accumulation day in volume, but not over the daily average.
Russell 2000 (IWM) No accumulation day in volume here. But, a return over the 200 DMA could make up for it.
Dow (DIA) Like IWM, over the 200 DMA. Like to see all indexes absorb the move and consolidate. Would make the market safer for longer term investors
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Second day of accumulation in volume and clearly the one we watched this week since had a better phase than the others. 63.15 next target area.
ETFs:
GLD Was long coming into today, but the late dump got me out. Does not mean the move is over necessarily, but we prefer to see how it behaves next couple of days around the 50 DMA
XLF (Financials) Cool. But to really impress, want to see it return over the 200 weekly moving average
IBB (Biotechnology) Today's low was Friday high and off she went back to unconfirmed bullish phase
SMH (Semiconductors) A weekly close over 31.90 would be solid
IYT (Transportation) How often have I written about following a range break after an inside day?
IYR (Real Estate) 50 DMA overhead at 62.15
USO (US Oil Fund) Looking now at the fast moving average overhead
XLE (Energy) Back above the monthly moving average if stays here.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Still have those 16.00 June calls which expire in about a week.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
NOTE: Today's video covered what to do in your trading plan once you are making money. Most traders sell too soon.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: NOTE: Will be harder to buy on strength. Wait for reversals unless otherwise noted. Also, only including anything that has at least 1.5 ATR potential for new entries
BBBY Cleared the 1st line of resistance and underperformed which means still has to clear today's high to be convincing
BIIB 138.49 all-time high. Has to hold S1
EQIX Pushing up against a trendline. Again, watch S1
EW Inside day. Look for a continuation over today's high. Risk S1
SHW Watch today's low to hold and recent highs to clear
VECO Almost an inside day. DOJI. Has to hold today's low and clear today's high
FDO Has to hold today's low on the 10 DMA. DOJI. Has to clear 67.75. Narrowest range day in 35 days
PPG Watch S1 to hold. Has room to last swing high and beyond if market holds
YOKU Inside day. Has to hold today's low. Stopped at 25 a couple of times so if that clears, could see good leg up.
TRIP Now has to clear the 10 DMA
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BHI Cannot clear 41.50 and break today's low
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows Note: If market is strong would advise not shorting. These are good if market sells off. All underperformed. I found others, but had to narrow down choices.
LNKD Cannot cross 94.21 and should break today's low
BAX Should not clear 51.05 the 10 DMA
BIDU ONLY if fails 118.11
CREE Cannot cross 25.00 and should break today's low
DVN Has to fail today's low
JWN Fail S1
Goodnight