Hard to be too upset with anyone right now. And honestly, not great state of mind for objective trading anyway! The nagging candles at the recent highs are still in sight, but that's the rub-they are in sight and not some distant memory one needs a telescope to see. By the way, nice job Space X launching last week the Dragon to an International Space Station! The Dow closed above last Monday's pre-crash highs. NASDAQ, the Russell 2000s and the S&P 500 not quite, but managed to close over the fast moving averages. Interest rates closed weak, and in fact, back to an unconfirmed recovery phase, even with a strong US dollar. That means, Monday's action should be telling regarding the near-term sentiment up or down. Overall, the major sectors that had to hold in a bullish phase did.
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the fast moving average but failed to clear 2/28 highs. Support at 150. And still has to clear 152.86 Subs: Pivots Negative. R1 and the 2/28 highs line up
Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed above the fast moving average. Still showing a top in place which means we need to get through it. Subs: Pivots negative and like SPY R1 and 2/28 high line up
Dow (DIA) Acted really well regardless of the economic data, the political issues, etc. Unless it breaks Friday's lows, see nothing blaringly negative here. However, would like to see 141.31 clear
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The more I watch the divorce between NASDAQ and AAPL, the more I respect the bullish phase this has maintained. Through 67.80, the recent highs are right there. Subs: Pivots Negative
GLD A bit oversold now on the weekly RSI. Subs: 152 support held for now
XLF (Financials) 17.85 is resistance but have to be impressed with the hold of the 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Broke the sideways range from the last 2 months.
SMH (Semiconductors): Last Monday and Thursday highs have to clear. Subs: Over 35.40 area would take the swing risk to 34.30 area
XRT (Retail) 2/28 high has to clear
IYT (Transportation) Subs: R1 and the slingshot high at 107.16 (without the blip above from last Thursday) line up
IYR (Real Estate) 68.88 recent highs to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Possible slingshot low if confirms with a move over 32.86 and tight risk to under Friday low. Oversold too.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Over R1 would look for a long with a good stop under 64.24
DVY (Select Dividend Index) Possible slingshot high looks negated
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: I like the chart but it does have some overhead so want to see some more digestion before we jump
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.65 overhead resistance
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
ARMH For those interested in a new high breakout, not overbought. Through 44.00 see 47 or so next with risk to Friday's low
CSC Has negative pivots so has to clear R1, but overall chart looks good with Friday low max risk
P Inside day. Like over Friday high risk 11.80.
HES Slightly negative pivots but held the 10 DMA 65.90 and a move back over 67.00 lines up with R1
BA 2 inside days. Can use 76.58 as a risk, yet still has to clear 78.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OSK If holds 37.46 and clears 38.47 could try again
Phase Change: DFS Peeked over the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Would not risk 38.65 as a close risk. COF Huge volume slingshot low. Friday low has to hold, but watch for a reversal against 51.25 for now. RAX Marginally cleared the 10 DMA and with some push could see 60.15 CMG Closed over the 200 DMA now in an unconfirmed accumulation phase. 314.50 now good risk. PANL Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. 30.00 now max risk ROST Confirmed recovery phase with max risk 57.22 SODA We got a SodaStream as a gift and see that it changed to an unconfirmed bullish phase. 48.00 area should hold and through 49 could see recent highs UA Confirmed phase change to recovery. Has to hold 48.50 with overhead resistance at the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
JNPR 20.81 max risk and could see 19.50 next or lower
CSTR Friday high good risk. 47.00 area next support
DVN 54.11 max risk with support at 52.00
BZH Friday high good risk as phase unconfirmed to distribution. See 14.50 next support
ALXN Only if it breaks Friday low
Bye for Now!
