Back from the storm with more sideways action in S&P 500, the Dow, and an inside day in the Russell 2000. NASDAQ also posted an inside day but closed in an unconfirmed distribution phase with neutral market internals both long and short term. The other indexes remain in accelerated warning phases with SPY now short term positive and long term neutral. That means pre-weekend analysis also remains the same- SPY has the most to lose and QQQ the most to gain. Follow the leader up or down. Some interesting developments in the sectors/groups. See below.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.06 a good number to watch. Downside, under 140.50 and the 200 DMA seems likely Subs: Positive pivots.
Russell 2000 (IWM) With inside day, can follow the way the range breaks Subs: Positive pivots.
Dow (DIA) 131.60 has to clear or 129.60 is next. Subs: Pivots positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Over 65.62 and would be a buyer. Otherwise, first watch 64.65 then 61.60 next real major support Subs: Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Opened back over 166 which is now a good pivotal number. Stopped at the fast moving average. Subs: Positive pivots. Has to clear Wednesday's high
XLF (Financials) One of the few in a bullish phase. As long as the 50 DMA stays intact, like to see it clear 16.03 or that hold could be ephemeral.
IBB (Biotechnology) 128.20 is the 200 DMA. Now approaching oversold
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed negative after retreating from the weekly moving average. Held the fast moving average. Happy if that continues, otherwise, an ominous sign if it does not. Subs: Pivots positive
XRT (Retail) Performed well. Back over the 50 DMA and we have a second sector back to bullish, joining financials.
IYR (Real Estate) Bounced off of the 200 DMA. We need to see this over 64.30 and then we have 3 key sectors indicating a bottom with retail and financials.
USO (US Oil Fund) Until it gaps over 32.17, leave it alone
XLE (Energy) Subs: Sloppy. Needs to clear today's high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs back over the 50 DMA. Watch 123.15 pivotal.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Mind the consolidation of the SPY DIA and watch which way QQQs go from here. Not including anything that reports before next Tuesday. Certain stocks still in play, but not on list like HOG IR-can watch for reversals or breakouts-RSI over 92. Also, with sideways action, have lots of picks which should get quickly reduced depending upon the overall market action.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MTB Closed over the pivots but still stacked negative. 103.50 good risk. Needs to clear R1 104.95
CP Has to hold the 10 DMA and clear today's high which lines up with R1
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LYB Inside day. Has to clear today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JBHT Really in an accumulation phase. Had a range expansion. Max risk 57.80 the 10 DMA
ADS starter log position. Inside day. Looking for a move over 143.45. Risk 142.60 area-the 10 DMA
WSM Reports 11/15. Has to clear the 10 DMA
EXP Reported made a 60 day high. Look for an Opening Range Reversal. 52.16 was the 2007 high until today
DDS Reports 11/9. Back in a bullish phase. 76 should hold. Could see move to 79.24 and beyond.
ROSE Reports 11/7. Inside day and phase change to bullish. Risk today's low and should clear 46.31.
DE Reports 11/21. Should now hold 84.76 max risk.
PNRA Inside day. U-Turn . Still has a slingshot from 10/04, but if can hold 168.35 area, could tackle the high of that day
SIG Reports 11/20. Still holding from last Thursday and could see more upside-has to clear 51.90. 2007 high 53.00
NBL Inside day. 94 the 10 DMA now should hold. Over 95.40 should keep going
C Pushing against the 10 DMA. Over today's high move up could continue with max risk 37.00
Phase Change: FDO looking for it to clear 66. FSLR Check earnings but had a inside day. WAT Unconfirmed recovery phase. Has to hold 81.50 level LULU Reports 12/7. Back to weak warning phase If holds the 200 DMA 67.80 CRUS Post earnings if clears 41.45 the recent high, risk is 40.50 the 50 DMA and could see 45.50 or better
Shorts: Do not see many good setups
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
VMW 85.62 max risk with a break of S1 best to wait for
EWZ 53.78 good risk off the pivots. Under 53 could see 51.20 September lows
CHKP Inside day. Cannot clear 44.78 ad should break 43.91
