Those interesting setups in certain sectors/groups I wrote about Wednesday night really paid off if you were watching. Retail, Financials, shone bright. Semiconductors showed up too! S&P 500 broke out of its sideways pattern, stopping short of the fast moving average and both NASDAQ and Russell 2000 proved once again how powerful following a range break of an inside day often turns out. A slew of good economic data didn't hurt, but the tech bubble told us that the internals were improving.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.28 now support. 143.70 the next overhead resistance or the 50 DMA.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Huge surge in volume! 82.00 important support with overhead resistance at 83.06 Subs: 83.06 where the 50 DMA and trendline live
Dow (DIA) 131.60 now support. 133.25 next overhead area.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Do not love the low volume bounce off of the 200 DMA which means still have to watch the leaders for follow through. Thursday action was good pricewise, but now we need some buyers in AAPL and GOOG.
ETFs:
GLD Perhaps we are truly seeing a divergence between equities and GLD. 166 held for now. But the performance suggests weakness not over.
XLF (Financials) 16.00 becomes important once again
IBB (Biotechnology) Worked off oversold condition, but still not a first choice for strength any longer
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared the 65-weekly moving average handily. A weekly close above and the 200 DMA next hurdle.
XRT (Retail) Gorgeous. Buyer of dips provided 62.70 holds
IYT (Transportation) Real close to the 200 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) Lagged. 64.45 an area which would bring it back to life if clears.
USO (US Oil Fund) Watching to see what happens at 32.50
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Inside day and back pushing against that channel I've featured on the video
XLE (Energy) Subs: 72.47 has to clear and this breaks its channel
REE (Rare Earth Element) Was up 6.37%. Subs: Look to see if dips to 4.26 to consider a new long
GDX (Gold Miners) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 63.60 area to clear.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Having a plan might have gotten you in any of the picks that have been stellar. Please make sure you write one daily. And, I am happy to review them with you.
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
PNRA 2nd Inside day. Still has a slingshot from 10/04, but if can hold 166.20 area, the 10 DMA, could still have its day or be a good short.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MTB 104 good risk. Needs to clear R1 105.04
LYB Signaled today and now improved in condition. Over 56 very strong. Risk 54.30
JBHT Max risk 57.81 the 10 DMA
PII Improved in condition. Has to hold 85.50. Eventually clear 90.00.
KORS Reports 11/13. Improved to condition 1. Tight risk 56.25. If this clears recent highs, could see nice rally ahead of earnings.
ADS 145.68 has to clear to keep a swing position going. Risk 143.10 area-the 10 DMA
EXP Inside day after big post earnings move.
EBAY Inside day. Improved in condition and phase. Has to clear R1.
NBL. Over 95.40 should keep it going with tight risk 94.75
C Improved in condition. 37.50 good risk. Over 38.06 got more upside
Phase Change: AAPL Holding the 200 DMA. After 5 days under pivots closed above. Now, has to hold 595 and clear 603. FB Inside day after huge correction. Over 21.50 looks good. ADSK Reports 11/15. Unconfirmed recovery phase. Max risk 31.65. Over 32.56 looks good to the 200 DMA. LULU Reports 12/7. Nice move. Would prefer an opening range reversal now if not long. LNKD Post earnings could gap above the 50 DMA at 113.65. BXP Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Only buy over107.84. Then can risk 107 for a swing. AMZN: Note-2 Inside days and would follow long or short.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EL Reported. Back to unconfirmed warning phase. Cannot clear 61.81 and should also break 60.40 the pivots
AMGN Had a slingshot and underperformed today. Inside day. Max risk 87.89
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
FTI Inside day. Cannot clear 41.43. Wait for it to break S1 and today's low.
CNQ Reports 11/8. Inside and narrow range day. Cannot clear 30.60 has to break today's low and S1
