After the comments made coming into Monday's low volume session- (3 signs of a bottom), I am only more encouraged that regardless which way the market goes from here, with inside days in ALL indexes, we have a great strategy to following the way the range breaks by either buying confirmed strength or choosing to short breakdowns or at the very least staying in cash if RSIs are too low and risk/reward is not clear.
Note: Check out TA Stocks and Commodities Magazine- November issue, https://www.traders.com/index.php/sac-magazine/departments/free-articles/1876-michele-mish-schneider. Come meet Keith and me in Las Vegas 11/14-11/18 at Caesar's Palace.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day and closed over the 200 DMA with an unconfirmed warning phase. If holds and takes out Monday high, could see 140.50 area quickly. Otherwise, back under the 200 DMA could see 135. Subs: Pivots slightly Negative. All indexes have slingshot bottom possibilities.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. If this gets back over 80 would go long but ultimately has to cross the 200 DMA to stick. Subs: Pivots Negative. Prefer to look at SPY or QQQ, but when this gets going, with a low weekly RSI, can move up quickly.
Dow (DIA) Inside day. 129.75 the 200 DMA. Subs: R1 and today's high line up.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 2 Inside days. That means real indecision at these levels and certainly following on the range break. Worked off some of the oversold weekly RSI. Subs: Pivots Negative. AAPL Weekly RSI remains very oversold. 555 has to clear which would also be a return over the 50% Fibonacci retracement area.
ETFs:
GLD Stopped dead in its tracks at the 50 DMA keeping the weak warning phase intact. 166 remains pivotal
SLV Closed over the weekly moving average but not the 50 DMA. 31.00 big area to hold
XLF (Financials) Inside day. As long as 15.45 holds, a chance to see if this has legs to get back over 15.85-a very clear healthy sign. Otherwise, likely to see the 200 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Gap higher needs to hold or quick trip back to test 129
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day. Closed below the fast moving average. That makes 31.80 an area that has to clear for more upside. Subs: Slingshot low still in place, but unless it gets back over the 50 DMA, aside
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Held the 200 DMA. Subs: One to watch for possible slingshot bottom. Confirmation over 61.45. Otherwise, will have to visit the 200 DMA again.
IYT (Transportation) Returned over Friday high closing marginally above. Subs: Unconfirmed phase change to recovery.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and confirmed distribution phase and a very important piece of the puzzle in the case of seeing more upside. Has to close back above the 200 DMA. Subs: Has gap to fill 62.59, which if does not fill is positive
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. Not oversold so a good place to look at for shorts
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Another possible slingshot til its not
XLE (Energy) Landed on the 65-weekly moving average. Now, has to get back over the 200 DMA to be a contender.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The bleed has to stop here as well.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: The picks relate to the video and the sectors/groups featured.
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WHR Inside day and low daily RSI. Over today's high puts it back over the 10 DMA which corresponds with R1. Risk today's low
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EXP 54.10 still point to clear but looking more likely provided it holds today's low
MA Broke the 30 minute Opening range and now, 472.89 has to clear to stick. 465 max support
DVA Like to see it clear 113.27 and hold today's low.
FDO 3 Inside days-rare! Above today's high would most likely follow. Like to see 65.70 hold
DISH improved its condition. And has an inside day. Risk today's low. Like to see it clear and close over 36
TRW Improved to condition 1. Inside day. Looks good, but also has to clear recent highs to stick 49.78
MTB U-turn pattern. Like over today high and has to hold today's low
Phase Change FSLR Golden cross first time since May, 2011. Has to clear 25.97. Looking a solid bottom forming. LULU Reports 12/7. Back to unconfirmed warning phase. Need to see a close over 69.60 and a hold of the 200 DMA. QCOM confirmed bullish phase with 2 inside days. Has to clear 62.80 F Max risk 10.77 and over 11.12 takes out R1. AIG Slingshot possible and confirmed phase change to warning. Has to clear 32.31 QIHU confirmed bull phase. Like to see 23.55 hold. BIIB Confirmed warning. 141.62 has to clear and max support today's low. DLR Back over 62.15 R1 and could see could rally to the 50 DMA. TXN Inside day. Over 30.00 would follow NFLX 8 days sideways. Over 80.33 looks better but still has to clear the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NUGT confirmed distribution phase. Cannot clear 14.43
WLL 2 inside days. Has to break 42.70 the 10 DMA
BWA Inside day. Should not clear R1
FLS After a slingshot, has to stay below the 10 DMA 136.50
MJN Cannot clear 66.07
TPX Inside day. Cannot clear today's high
CLF Inside day and must stay under 36.63 the 10 DMA
ROSE after a slingshot high Thursday, went to an unconfirmed warning phase and inside day. 46.46 the 50 DMA is pivotal and should not clear
Bye for Now
