Beginning with a gap higher on Friday, market continued higher on low volume with relief from both an austerity plan (plan, not done deal) from Italy and better than expected consumer sentiment number. Encouraging since Thursday and Friday's action erased last Wednesday's selloff, but the key word is encouragement and not celebration. All indexes remain in their current phases leaving plenty of room for them to go in either direction.
SPY: Still has the 200 DMA to clear and if does, to confirm phase change, must do so for 2 consecutive closes. With Friday's gap, that low now important to hold.
IWM: Also must hold Friday's low then clear 75.00 first then 77.60 the 200 DMA. That's a whole lotta love if it can clear.
QQQ: I'm somewhat perturbed about the high candle formation from last Tuesday, followed by its inability to close above 58.25. Weekly and monthly chart look better than the daily. Use 58.25 as pivotal area to cross and eyeballs on the 200 DMA 56.40 below to hold.
ETFs:
GLD Gap low Friday 172.07 to hold. Over 175 like it to the highs.
SLV (Silver) Until it closes above 34.45, bear phase intact.
XRT (Retail) I have not wavered in my analysis that this sector rocks. Like dips as buy opportunities as this is nowhere near overbought.
XLK (Technology) Has to clear 26.24 and hold 25.50.
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed over the 200 DMA; need to see a repeat performance.
XLF (Financials) 13.10 an area to hold then 13.45 to clear
XLE* (Energy) (Narrowest Range in 77 Days) If you blow on this sector it will jump over the 200 DMA and Friday's high. If you sneeze, it could fail Friday's low. Definitely worth close attention
OIH (Oil Service Holders) Subs-I hope some of you were watching and buying once R1 cleared Friday with the gap higher. Now 128.70 to hold and 133.15 the 160 EMA to clear
Longs: Important now to watch the Indexes and ETFs featured above since they are at more critical points. Had lots to choose from, doing my best to bring you a variety of picks with greatest potential and lowest risk that span the varying sectors/groups in Retail (XRT), Energy (XLE), Biotech (IBB), Computer Services (XLK), Tech (SMH) and Real Estate (IYR VNQ). Many of last week's picks in play.
BIIB (NR 24) Positive Floor Trader pivots (PFTP) at 113.40. Must hold 110.71 for swing 112.75 for mini. Through 115, could see 120.66 all time high or better. Day to Swing
JWN Tested the 50 DMA and 70 EMA 48.26 and returned to close above Friday. 3 days under the FTPs at 48.87 so must clear R1 50.09 for entry. Then, swing traders can use 46.15 the 200 DMA risk, mini Friday low 47.65 Daytraders the pivots. 53.35 recent high to clear then can see 60.00 or higher. Day to Swing
PCLN (NR 7) 525 now should hold. Actually one of the few with negative pivots at 531.25, closer area of support. Then R1 537.50 to clear. 552.85 new all time high close. Good potential. Day to Swing
STT Swing traders-this never broke 39.00. Closer risk 40.67 Friday low. PFTP at 41.12. A close over 41.85 puts it back over the 65 weekly MA first time since July. Then could see a move to 47.00 or higher.Day to Swing
BIDU (NR 7) Inside day PFTPs at 137.00. Swing risk 132.00 Miniswing 134.57. Still has to clear R1 139.01. Then some resistance at 150 but could go to 163 or higher if market stays firm. Day to Swing
XOM (NR 141) After a gap higher had this NR day and bumping up against the 200 DMA at 79.90. 77.10 is max risk for a swing, Friday low 79.34 for mini especially since the trade will be in anticipation of it clearing the 200 DMA. Recent high 82.20 then could see 86.00 or better. Day to Swing
SLG PFTPs at 68.60. Swing risk 64.95 the 50 DMA. Miniswing risk 67.59 Friday low. First has to clear the 160 EMA at 70.85 to see the 65 weekly moving average at 71.35. Then, if market stays firm, could see the 200 DMA at 74.75 next.Day to Swing
RAX (NR 7) Inside day (PFTP) at 42.43. After a large bear candle followed by an inside day, follow through move is likely. Held the 10 DMA near Friday's low 41.82. That must hold or the move could be a drop to 39.00. Trade is if clears 43.10 then could see 45.45-46.50 and in good market 55.00. Day to Mini.
Honorable Mention: OR Reversal AMGN (NR 20 -57.30 to hold, still has to clear 60.00 for more than miniswing) CELG EQR SPG (NR 39) CVX (NR 79) GOOG CF (NR 15) IBM LVS* (Got shaken out of mini but swing still in. Now, 45.60 to hold)
Shorts: All short picks must break S1 and Friday low either with a gap lower and breakdown or an Opening Range Reversal from the high after a lower open.
RIG GS SLV CTSH (NR 15) WFC (NR 89) FCX (NR 47)
Have a great Sunday!