SPY: Phase and slope unchanged. 4-5 days over a 2-week period of distribution days and volume patterns begin to favor the bears (We have had 3). 122.80 next support. Above 127 would look good.
QQQ: I have been writing about the perturbing candle from11/08. Then, it tried but could not close above 58.25 which appeared as the number to negate the candle. Now, it broke the low over the last few days. But, until we get 1-2 closes under 55.80, accumulation phase intact.
IWM: Had a bit of time today over what looked like a good price until the news about Fitch reared its ugly head. Now, 70.00 support and 74.90 the new number to watch.
ETFs:
GLD Doing a lot of work since it popped back over 170 and cannot get through 175. And that looks like the new and tighter trading range. Subs-3 days under the FTP at 171.68 with R1 close to today's high.
SLV (Silver) Until it closes over 34.45, still in bear phase.
XRT (Retail) Never crossed 53.75 then had the dramatic drop. 50.70 an area to watch.
SMH (Semiconductors) Hanging on as the best looking performer today. But, until it clears 32.75, we cannot dismiss a possible double top. But that would not be confirmed until 29.75.
XLF (Financials) Technical little bugger. 12.65 held and now key. 13.20 a better number to clear
XLE (Energy) Under 69 can see 66.00. Otherwise, not too interesting until it clears 72.50.
OIH (Oil Service Holders) Subs-Actually has positive pivots at 130.21 which means unless it breaks S1 127.36, if market firms, this is eligible for a reversal trade.
Longs: Today was the day that all of the rules I talk about over and over came home to roost. Have a plan including stops and targets. Be flexible and honor the overall phase of the market and sector/groups.Note: You will be with Keith through Friday then Geoff Monday through Wednesday. See you when I return! Happy Trading.
PANL Has positive pivots at 53.41 and S1 at 51.59 which should hold for miniswing traders. With Positive pivots, provided S1 holds, is a reversal candidate. To get going again, also must clear 53.75 on a closing basis. Then could see 63.00 next. Day to Mini
RAX Has positive pivots at 42.92 with S1 at 42.24 for miniswing risk. Otherwise, if want to hold for swing, risk is under 38.00. Would like to see today's high 43.31 clear. With Positive pivots, provided S1 holds, is a reversal candidate. 46.00 overhead resistance and if that clears looks good. Day to Swing
KSS 2 days under the FTP at 55.67 so ideally, must clear R1 and today's high 56.25. A close over 57.00 would be highest close this year. Then could see 60.00 or better. Risk is today's low 55.12 for mini and 53.77 for swing. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: OR Reversal PAY* (Must hold S1 43.27) SNDK PCLN (534.46 max risk now that FTPs negative) HAL Clear R1: BIDU CAM (Must clear 53.44) GOOG (Must clear 618.30) EL(116.50) ABX (Must clear 52.63) EOG (Must clear 103.41)
Shorts: The OR high failure in all of last night's picks worked beautifully, under pivots, R points and prior day's highs.
APKT Worked off oversold conditions and still under the 50 DMA at 41.15, a perfect risk if breaks S1 at 38.74 since pivots are positive. Then could see a return to the 200 DMA 25.50. Day to swing.
BID Negative pivots at 31.60 with good risk to today's high 32.16 and the 50 DMA at 33.02 for swing traders. If breaks can see 27, the 200 DMA and then October low 25.00 or worse. Day to Swing
WYNN worked off oversold conditions and still has room from original short at 130.00. Negative pivots at 124.43 with R1 125.92. Original target was 122, now could see 108 next. Day to swing
TWC Negative pivots at 60.83 with R1 61.27. Originally wrote on November 3rd September low 60.19 and could see move to 55.00. Even 50.00 now a possibility. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: OR High Failure against R1 CMG (R1 323.97) WHR MOS AMZN AAPL
Goodnight!