After breakaway gaps, low volume and inside days in SPY and IWM, today filled the gap which takes wind of the sails of the last move up. Not a confirmed phase change from Accumulation to Recovery in SPY until there are 2 closes under the 200 DMA. IWM never got there which makes the midcaps once again, the compelling watch since the gap from Thursday is still intact. An open under 73.58 would look ominous; an open from unchanged to a higher gives reasons to have optimism. No major volume to report, but SPY eked out a Distribution day. Many key reports this week-FOMC, ISM and unemployment.
SPY: 122.70 is the 80 month moving average and next underlying support. A move under today's high is a return move over the 200 DMA. Subs-126.63 R1 to watch for either more upside or OR high failure
IWM: Broke the gap low from last Thursday, but kept the gap thus far from the high Wednesday 73.58.Subs-R1 74.96 to watch
QQQ: Not irreparable damage just yet since held support at 57.75. Then, the 200 DMA will be next area to watch. Subs-R1 58.40
ETFs:
UUP* (US Dollar Bull) Gapped higher indicating a possible island bottom from last Thursday and Friday's action but faces resistance at the major moving averages which intersect at 21.73. Had a golden cross last week, but until price runs above the 50 and 200 DMA, that is not confirmed.
GLD Back to warning phase after failing the downward sloping 50 DMA on the lower open. Subs-168.00 now resistance
SLV (Silver) Followed through on death cross with 32.00 next area to test. Subs: R1 33.64.
FXI (China) Left a possible island top after never proving itself last week. Subs-34.80 next support R1 36.72
TBT (Ultrashort 20 Year Treasuries) 19.80 next big support. TLT resumed the bull phase today.Subs-OR reversal candidate with S1 114.24
XLK (Technology) 25.50 the 200 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) Did not hold the breakaway gap but, did hold the 200 DMA. Subs* If there is a chance for a rally, watch R1 32.07
IBB (Biotechnology) 97.00 support after watching this sector lag behind during last week's rally.
XLF (Financials) Broke 13.68, testing 13.45, the area it broke out from. Under that level looking at 12.90. Subs- 13.70 R1
OIH (Oil Service Holders) 126.57 the high before the breakaway gap. Subs-negative pivots at 130.20 so watching for more weakness if cannot cross R1 131.67.
XLE (Energy) R1 71.10
Longs: Looking at stocks with good daily charts, clear point of support or risk and 2 days under the FTP
YUM 2 days under the FTP at 53.83 and must hold 53.13 or could see more drop to 51.95. As with any condition 1 stock, buy ½ over the FTP and add over R1 54.20. Day to mini
TPX Hammer looking candle with 2 days under the FTP at 69.37 which is actually stacked positive. Good risk point 66.75. With the pivots, a candidate for a reversal above S1. Then, back through R1 70.78 could see 75.00 Day to mini
DPZ 2 days under the FTP at 32.11 with R1 32.52 today's high 32.61. Risk 31.20. Since over the weekly Bollinger band, has room to upside if gets going. Day to mini
CTXS Inside day and 2 days under the FTP at 72.91 with good risk to today's low 71.91 for mini or daytrade and swing risk under the 200 DMA 69.88. Today's high 73.98 lines up near R1. Has room to 85.00 Day to swing
Oversold: AVP R1 18.75 must cross with 18.00 (maximum risk). Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Must clear R1 GOOG LULU COH LVS AMGN* UNH MRX. OR Reversal BBBY AAPL* Positive pivots, but unless it clears 408.50, under S1 400.80 looking at possible island top
Shorts: (Remember to look at the write up on the ETFs as well)
Ultrashort TWM. If gaps over today's high, could be an island bottom (only index with that possible setup) Day to Swing
SYK Negative pivots at 48.41 with the 50 DMA at 48.11 which is still sloped positive. Under the 80 month and 200 weekly moving averages with overall daily pattern weak. R1 48.92. Look for a short setup and first support at 47.40 then 44.00. Day to swing
DFS Should not clear 24.35 with R1 24.15 and the 200 DMA 23.75. Underlying support 21.50 then 20.50. Day to mini
CREE Was on yesterday's honorable mention and had an OR high failure today. R1 27.29 with next support 25.94 the 10 DMA and if that breaks24.50 then 23.70 with recent low 23.03. Day to mini
AGP 7 days with positive pivots and failed the 200 DMA at 57.17. MUST break S1 at 54.43 to see a move to 52.00 then 48.50 Day to mini
Hon Mention: OR high failure SOHU SINA STJ MCP
Goodnight!
