With a lot of anxiety lurking, from fiscal cliffs to European concerns, market held its own with both S&P 500 and DOW putting in inside days. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fared better, both ending above Friday's high. Noteworthy is that IWM ran above the 200 DMA, SPY stayed there with DIA and QQQ the hold outs.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day filling the gap left on the open with a clear plan to trade in the direction the way today's range breaks. Subs: The 70 EMA is still pivotal at 141.00. With negative pivots, best case is to see 141.40 clear
Russell 2000 (IWM) 6 days up in a row with a close above the 200 DMA 80.50 putting this into an unconfirmed warning phase. If that level holds, next stop is 81.10. Subs: Positive Pivots
Dow (DIA) Inside day, shy of the 200 DMA making that level ever so important especially since it is back into an unconfirmed distribution phase. Subs: 129.75 is the 200 DMA but really, over 130 is key. Pivots negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The 200 DMA is 65.45. if 65.00 holds, good chance this will clear the 200. Otherwise, a break of 65.10 and we are back looking at Friday lows. Subs: GOOG Underperformed again. Has to hold 660.50 now to be a contender.
ETFs:
GLD Inside and narrow range day with 169 key support at the 50 DMA
SLV Confirmed bullish phase making the 50 DMA support 32.25 ad 34 the next objective. Subs: Would look for a reversal
XLF (Financials) Back in an unconfirmed warning phase after registering a bullish one Friday. Filled the gap it left from Friday's open. Watch for the 50 DMA to clear. Next Gap to fill above at 16.01
IBB (Biotechnology) the 50 DMA is overhead and possibly inviting. Otherwise, has room down to the fast moving average at 133.65
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed over the 50 and has to stay there for the fun to continue.
XRT (Retail) The holiday shopping was clearly already in this ETF before today. Subs: Back in an unconfirmed warning phase if cannot get back above 62.65.
IYT (Transportation) Subs: A reversal against the 50 DMA at this point makes most sense.
IYR (Real Estate) Cleared the 200 DMA for a confirmed phase change. 63.25 has to hold.
GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners) Subs: confirmed phase change to warning and now needs to stay there
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: If cannot clear 32.30, will start to look for a new short by going to SCO
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: If this group stays weak, HAL under today's low could see a drop to 31.00
XLE (Energy) 71.05 now has to clear. The 200 DMA at 70.37 has to hold
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) If cannot clear 60.92, the gap, reason for concern in the overall market. 59.85 has to hold
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Please watch today's video to see how we began long swing trades on reversals against key moving averages.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NBL Has to clear 97.60
TRMB Inside day. Good risk to today 's low 55.95 the 2012 high
PVH 109.44 max risk.
AEM new 2012 high and over the 200 weekly moving average. 56.36 now max risk
JBHT Bullish engulfing pattern. Over today' s high max risk 59.60.
SBAC Has to clear 68.68
DE Confirmed phase change. Next hurdle is the 10 DMA at 85.02. has to hold 83.60.
LEN Inside day, slightly negative pivots with all time high 39.33.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QIHU Has to hold today's low. Ideally, clear today's high and R1.
Phase Change: GOOG (see above) MTH Has to hold 35.00 and clear 36.42 AAP Held the 10 DMA with max risk 77.64 PAY 30.67 max risk. Like to see 31.39 clear WAT Inside day. 83.65 has to clear with risk 83.10 BAC Has to clear 9.97 PETM 2 inside days. Has to clear 69.50 and hold today's low
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
WLP Max risk 55.75 R1
HLF Max risk is today's high
BBBY U-turn with max risk around 59.26-the pivots
HES Should not clear 50.00
APA 76.87 is the max risk
CLR Max risk is 70.48
ROSE Look for an OR high failure to short against 47.30 R1
CNX If cannot clear 32.17 look for a short
Bye for Now!
