Let's talk phases! S&P 500 remains in a strong warning phase although it tested the 50 DMA. The Dow goes into an unconfirmed strong warning phase, making the 200 an important pivotal area at week's end. Russell 2000 goes to an unconfirmed bullish phase-first one of the 4 indexes! NASDAQ confirms the strong warning phase, again, with the 200 DMA a line in the sand. One can safely say that this week confirmed the improving internals the market saw last week. One must also be prepared for the next level of resistance right within reach of the market's fingertips and what could wind up as a fiscal cliffhanger leaving us traders wondering will the resistance areas clear or is this it? Have a nice weekend.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.43 the 50 DMA with good RSIs making a strong end of week entirely possible. Otherwise, 141.40 support to hold
Russell 2000 (IWM) 9 days up in a row! Only unconfirmed phase change to bullish which means a close back beneath the 50 DMA and cliffhanger scenario!
Dow (DIA) 129.75 line in the sand.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 66.37 the overhead 50 DMA resistance as we will watch to see if this does indeed clear or leave us hanging over the cliff (pun intended). Subs: GOOG OR reversal and close over the channel. This WAS the week to talk about channels for sure. AAPL I hate to say it, but could be setting up as a short if can't get going over 590.
ETFs:
GLD 167.60 area resistance. Subs: Looking at a possible short.
SLV Filled the overhead gap but did not give traders any clear entry point
XLF (Financials) Such a tease. Watching 15.85 level
IBB (Biotechnology) Cleared the 50 DMA as my subscribers and I found a few names to enter long in this sector with good risk
SMH (Semiconductors) A close this week above 32.00 encouraging.
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Subs: And right at the channel line, not overbought
IYT (Transportation) Getting to top of recent range.
IYR (Real Estate) Cleared the 200 DMA provided 63.25 holds
GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners) Back over the 200 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: DOJI and death cross
XLE (Energy) Subs: On the subject of channels, held the bottom of one-either clears or fails
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Over 60.92 good
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Those long CVLT and DDD-posted possible slingshot highs today and if short HLF-slingshot low
GILD Coiling with 74.50 now support and through 75.87 see new highs
BEN Cleared 132.25. Now, if that holds, see room upside
COG Has to clear 48.50
HFC has to clear 45.80
CELG Like to see it hold 79.45 to give it a push up to the highs and beyond
AEM A weekly close above 56.35 will clear the 200 weekly moving average, first time since 9/2011. Like to see 55.95 hold
CRM To keep this in play, has to hold 157.75
URI Closed right at 41.50 so needs follow through
GRA Had this on the list so if watching, today gapped and ran. Now, if 65.45 clears watching for recent highs 66.25 and the beyond.
Phase Change: BIDU Confirmed slingshot and now has to hold 96.75 VRTX: slingshot with risk 39.65 SPG Should IYR get going, this had unconfirmed phase change to warning. 151.20 level is the 200 DMA WY Through 26.87 if 26.74 holds
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
HAIN Cannot clear 61.43
VPRT Double the volume and a bearish engulfing pattern. New risk 30.54
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
SOHU Right against the 50 DMA. 39.80 area good risk and a break of today's low could see drop to 37.90
KORS After a slingshot high 11/02, unconfirmed phase change to warning today. Tight risk to 53.22 if it breaks S1
MJN 69.50 the overhead 50 DMA resistance
PX After 5 days over pivots did a 180. Like 106.95 as max risk.
Bye for Now!
