Spectacular gains, drops then gains since last week. Low volume after a big distribution day yesterday.QQQ holding above the 200 DMA with an uninspiring day. Midcaps (IWM) on the island top signal which only negates if that gap to 73.93 gets filled. An interesting factor in how this all plays out are thefinancials (XLF). Several stocks in that sector had the narrowest range day today in quite some time.
SPY: For awhile, was writing about 123.50 as a breakout point. Been above and below since. Now looking like a pivotal area again.
IWM: Island top still in play until gap fills. Otherwise, under 70.95 worrisome.
QQQ: Held the 200 DMA with next support 55.35. has to clear 57.50 to get interesting.
ETFs:
GLD 168.20 the declining 50 DMA to hold now.
FXI (China) Perfect example of negating an island top by filling the gap. A weekly close over 36.50 could mean a test of 40.00 near. Has last week's high to contend with first.
SMH (Semiconductors) Could not clear Yesterday's high. Over 31.35 gets interesting, over 31.60 even more so. Otherwise, 30.20 next level to look for on downside
XLF (Financials) Technically, still a gap and island top. After the interesting hammer candle yesterday, could not clear pervious day high. Subs- Under 13.00 watch C COF PNC under S1, all of which had unusual narrow range days today.
XRT (Retail) Did not disappoint as the best looking sector/group even as Bernanke talked about the pre recession lack of consumer confidence. Subs-52.75 pivotal.
OIH (Oil Service Holders) Also working an island top unless gap is filled
XLE (Energy) Subs-Bought the OR reversal which could have kept you in. Now, 69.71 point to clear or watch a break of 68.45
Longs: Founds lots of narrow range (NR) days again. FXI XLE XRT if strong (Long list includes 2 retail, 1 energy and 1 Chinese company, plus lots of Honorable Mentions to look at as well.)
BIDU (NR 33) Gapped higher and above all the converged moving averages. Really tight, good risk is under the gap 138.80. Positive pivots so reversal candidate as well. 152.10 resistance and if that clears looks like it could go to the highs 163. Day to Swing
CVI (NR 12) 24.70 support to hold and 25.20 the 50 DMA with positive pivots at the 50 DMA. Good one if energy sector is strong. Then could see 28.00 or higher. Day to swing
IBM (NR 16) S1 182.87 and the 10 DMA 182.70 close risk. Positive pivots at 184.06 for OR reversal. Has room to 192, and then will look again. Day to mini
BBBY (NR 7) 61.24 today's low should hold. Positive pivots at 61.84 for OR reversal candidate. Some resistance at 63.75 but if clears could see 65.00 area next. Day to Mini
GPC Today's low 56.70 good risk with positive pivots at 57.20 for OR reversal candidate. Overhead resistance at the recent high 59.40, but if clears could see 61.00 or better. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: NFLX must clear 84.65. OR Reversal NIHD ORLY (NR 14) LVS (NR 12) RRC (NR 7) TIF** (NR 16) VLO (NR 28) COG TSCO Must clear R1 LULU (NR 14) YUM (NR 7) COH (NR 16) QCOR CTXS
Note: JVA (NR 110) 9.50 is max risk or would not touch. But back over 10.75 also clears the 200 DMA
Shorts: OIH XLF SMH IBB groups/sectors to look at if market weak.
LEA Bearish engulfing pattern and negative pivots at 45.06. Should not clear R1 or today's high. Next support 38.50. Day to Swing
VAR (NR 43) Slightly positive pivots at 56.39 and should not clear today's high. Ideally, looking for S1 to break 55.79 to see a move to 51.45 the 200 weekly moving average or worse if market cracks. Day to Swing
VMED (NR 44) Positive pivots so must break S1 24.26 to see a move to 20.00 next support. Day to mini
WLT Reported today. Under the 50 DMA yet positive pivots and cannot clear today's high or could reverse and rally. S1 must break at 72.39 to see lower prices. Target 54.00. Day to Swing
Hon Mention: C (NR 23) COF (NR 46) PNC (NR 23) (all must break S1) GMCR (Getting oversold but not there yet. Must not clear R1 or today's high 64.92)
Goodnight!