I worry when I see so called "professional" traders who have subscription services and recommend that folks buy falling knives in the "hope" that they will be the first ones to be "right". This is dangerous and quite frankly, the exact opposite of what one should do when markets are in free fall. When the market bottoms, there are obvious signs. Walls of support against daily chart points, accumulation in volume on the up days, penetration of old resistance areas, phase and condition changes, converging moving averages, etc. So, if you cannot be a seller or even buyer of ultrashorts, then stay in cash until the signs appear.
Note: Check out TA Stocks and Commodities Magazine- November issue with an exclusive interview they did with me.
S&P 500 (SPY) If it can get back over the 200 DMA 138.26 and give another indication like clearance of the pivots, then perhaps a buy for a pop is feasible with tight stops. Otherwise, could see 135. Subs: Today's video goes into detail. FTP and point to clear is 139ish.
Russell 2000 (IWM) If this gets back over 79.91 might take a small long but ultimately has to cross the 200 DMA to stick. Subs: 79.91 is Wednesday low and back into the channel, which means some relief could occur
Dow (DIA) 129.72 the 200 DMA now resistance unless it clears and closes back above it.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Getting close to early summer support levels with a very oversold weekly RSI. Subs: AAPL Could be overdone now. But, rather buy it over 547.00-the pivots.
ETFs:
GLD Continued to run up after the 30 year bond auction that yielded lower rates .168.38 is the overhead 50 DMA. 167.30 Subs: SLV look good over 31.10 belter over 31.50
XLF (Financials) Tried 15.80, but unless it clears, likely to see the 200 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Hovering at the 200 DMA. Subs: Watch this for a phase hold/change. Video goes into details. Want to buy over 129 if market is cooperating
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed below the fast moving average. Expect lower prices but not necessarily new lows. Subs: Slingshot low still in place, but unless it gets back over the 50 DMA, aside
XRT (Retail) Major dump and hopefully not a sign that what was just yesterday, the best looking sector, quickly disintegrating to a major cause for concern for quite some time. Support at the 10/26 low 60.83
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Eyes here too for any sign of strength and a breakout of the channel
IYR (Real Estate) Strong warning phase. Landed on the 200 DMA with 10/26 low 62.86 Subs: If stays here ok, otherwise, has gap to fill 62.59
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day and not oversold. Subs: SCO Through 47.48 after inside day.
XLE (Energy) Got close to the 65-weekly moving average.
GDX (Gold Miners) Tested the upward sloping overhead 50 DMA. Weekly close over 52.00 positive
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: The picks relate to the video and the sectors/groups featured.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LEN Has to clear 39.25 and hold 38 the 10 DMA
VC Inside day. Risk 48.60. Has to clear 50.30 to get going
PNR Improved in condition but has 2 days under pivots. Has to hold 43.77 the 10 DMA and clear pivots, then R1. The, 46.12 to keep going.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NOTE: Some have a negative stack of pivots but closed above-see that on a day like today more lack of overall interest.
AEM 56.35 is the 200 weekly moving average. Held the 10 DMA. Has to hold today's low and clear 57.00 to stick.
SLW Still want to see it take out 41.00 to stick and hold 40.25
LPX 2 Inside days. Like to see today's low hold. And really, clear 16.50
TRIP 33.21 is the 50 DMA and max risk. Over 34.50 looks good
DISH 2 inside days. Has to clear today's high which also clears the 10 DMA and will improve its condition. Risk today's low
Phase Change FSLR Inside day TXN Inside day. Over 30.00 would follow but might consider a starter pos over today's high MTH Slingshot on10/26. Inside day. Like over 37.90 and R1 and over 39.00 the 50 DMA BIDU working a slingshot pattern only if it clears 106.41
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TPX Cannot clear 26.50
FLS After a slingshot yesterday, has to break today's low and the 10 DMA and not clear today's high
CAM Unconfirmed distribution phase. Cannot clear the 200 DMA
MDC Had a slingshot. Closed under the 50 DMA. Should not get over 38.30
AMGN Inside day. Has to stay below the 50 DMA
MJN Cannot clear 66.10 and should break 64.90 the 10 DMA to stick
FIRE Inside day. Has to break today's low and not get back above 46.00
Bye for Now
