A US bank holiday typically results in low volume. The return of the Asian Market and some good news coming from Europe certainly helped a lot. But what about price, phase and slope? Price-The high of the September rally is in reach with some of the indexes bordering on overbought. Phase-All but the midcaps are in a recovery phase-QQQ cleared and confirmed last week. Slope-all declined further on the 50 DMA. That keeps the bullish jubilation tempered.
SPY: 117.00 support, 117.80 the 50 DMA and overhead resistance at the September high 123.50.Subs-all indexes have positive pivots making them OR Reversal candidates until S1 breaks.
DIA: Cleared the 80 monthly and the 50 DMA at 112.10. 117.03 September high.
QQQ: 56.23 the 200 DMA resistance, 57.35 September high and 54.44 support to hold.
IWM: Today's action negated the Bearish engulfing pattern from Friday. Still has the 80 month MA to contend with at 68.55. September high 73.89. 65.60 ultimate support to hold.
ETFs:
GLD Broke above the 8 day range on light volume. If 162 holds up, measured move to 170.
SLV Inside day and narrow range which makes this still somewhat vulnerable under 30.00.
XLK (Technology) Got very close to but could not clear the top of recent range 25.29.Could drop to 24.00 and maintain its current recovery phase. Hard to get too friendly now with RSI approaching overbought territory.
SMH (Semiconductors) 29.74 the high in September and is now officially overbought on a short term RSI indicator. That makes 29.00 pivotal with a correction to 27.85 possible.
IBB (Biotechnology) September high 99.54. Not overbought like the techs.
XLE (Energy) If 62.00 holds, 65 next target.
OIH Under 112.50 still vulnerable. So far from September high-fairer target if holds at 124.75.
TLT ** (The 20 year Treasuries) 5 down days and impressively held the adaptive moving average 116.50. back above 117, especially now that it is getting oversold, can see a move up to 119.40 fairly quickly. Subs-perfect risk under today's low 115.80 which matches low on 9/28
XLF (Financial) 12.00 support, 12.62 next resistance
XRT (Retail) 50.05 the resistance at the 200 DMA.
Longs: So many of the swing trades recommended last week plus ANF today (other picks were miniswing recommendations) have worked for those who follow swing rules. I will be watching TLT as best new swing possibility. At this point, a correction as stated above for the stronger sectors/groups would be healthy and not violate the recovery phase. Condition 1 stocks need at the very least, OR reversals to control risk. Please make sure you mark the earnings dates. Will only list the dates for new recommendations.
IDCC (10/24) has been on short list but today held up well and now has positive pivots at 48.40. Plus an inside day which means over 49.45 could first see test of the 200 DMA at 50.52 but then a better chance for 55.25. If rallies and closes above the 200 could hold for swing. Risk is under today's low 46.90 max. Since under the 200 will most likely use the pivots for risk. Day to swing
ADTN Reports 10/12 After inside day if holds today's low 28.38 and gets through R1 29.08 could see rally to September high 32.74. Day to max miniswing
DVA (Reports 11/9) Inside and narrow range day above the 80 monthly and 200 weekly moving averages. The candle Friday was a bit ominous but since long term trend intact now also must clear R1 63.52 and today's high to get going. First target 67.50 then 71.20 the 50 DMA. Risk only to under today's low 62.39. Day to swing
PANL (Reports 10/31) Over 46.00 could still get going but pivots are negative so has to hold 44.94, a conservative risk. (Swing traders can use the 50 DMA 43.40.) A close above 46.80 would be healthy for then could see a rally to 57. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: OR Reversal POT* ORLY DECK AMZN CL CELG ANF IBM
Shorts:
OPEN (Reports Nov 1) Negative pivots at 46.91 and must break S1 at 45.18 to keep in short. Risk 48.20 if sell strength. Day to mini
GS Although pivots are positive, on the list since had a bearish engulfing pattern on Friday followed by an inside day today. Over 98.07 negates it and could mean a decent short covering rally. Otherwise, if breaks 93.95 could see recent lows 84.27. Day to mini
Honorable Mention: Like GS-inside day after bearish engulfing SINA (11/16) BG (10/27) VRX WHR (10/24) X (10/25) all have positive pivots and must break today's low
Goodnight!
