Let's review how the 3 scenarios did:
3 scenarios to watch for: 1. SPY holds the 50 DMA and breaks above 10/10 high with accumulation in volume. (Yes, no, no) 2. Ditto in DIA and/or IWM 3. (Yes, no, no) After the possible flush Tuesday in QQQ, that also clears Wednesday's high with accumulation in volume. (No, no).
Add up the yes versus no and you get 6 to 2 in favor of the no's. A technical trader would say-not such great odds a bottom was put in place Thursday. Or another way of putting it- 25% chance that a bottom was put in place on Thursday.
S&P 500 (SPY) Where does that leave this? A must move over the fast moving average or the 50 DMA (143.00) could go to warning. Subs: Closed under pivots but they are stacked positive. S1 and 143 line up
Russell 2000 (IWM) A must move over the fast moving average. Subs: Closed over pivots-stacked positive. S1 and 50 DMA line up
Dow (DIA) Inside day. Looks vulnerable-but even if closes under the 50 DMA, the warning phase will be weak.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Pretty oversold on the 2-day RSI. See 66.30 area as support so not a good risk/reward right here on short side.
ETFs:
GLD Holding the island bottom and marginally closed at Wednesday high. Still has some more proving to do but bias friendly. SLV No more island bottom-bias-aside
XLF (Financials) Held 16.02 with some big financial institution's about to report earnings
XRT (Retail) Looking at the 50 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) Some signs of life but sadly, only against resistance Subs: Might be starting to look like a short as the warning phase accelerates
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day
OIH (Oil Services) Boxed in a range over last 7 trading days-would follow the way that range breaks.
XLE (Energy) Hanging onto the 50 DMA but not impressively until clears the fast moving average
REE (Rare Earth Element) Subs: Looking at 4.72
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs back to the 50 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
NOTE: Truly a tough week with the market looking toppy now yet with some great longs which are jewels in the sand when we can find them. But, since we never know, have to try the setups and continue to trade with tight stops. Then, when you get a SINA RRC X EQT GS-miniswings are most conducive to market conditions.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FLS Reports 10/25. Tried a reversal but exited with nominal loss. Now, prefer to look at strength only.
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
VFC Reports 10/23. Inside day. Today's low max risk. Want to see strength
GILD Reports 10/25. Inside day. 67.50 is max risk
LMT Reports 10/24. Inside day. Really needs to clear today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FXI A gap up with also a possible slingshot-Long way to drop to the 200 DMA so let's start with it holding 36.00
PXD Reports 10/31. Improved to condition 1. Inside day. Today's low max risk
FLR Reports 11/01. Improved to condition 1. Max risk today's low
DB Reports 10/30. Huge gap then nothing. Let's keep eyes on it
CRM Reports 11/15. Like it back over 153.10 with today's low good risk
EL Reports 11/1. Improved to condition 1. Has to holds today's low
AGU Reports 11/15. Improved to condition 1. 103.66 max risk. Over 106 looks good
CL Reports 10/25. Narrow range day with today's low max risk.
SINA Worth looking at if holds 61.70 area on the open
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: XEC Gapped up and held -confirmed phase change to recovery. Like to see 60.90 hold F The real risk is the 50 DMA at 9.79. For now, watching 10.00
Shorts: Similar to longs-some jewels-CMI NSC NUS FB TRIP but not so easy to find
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EWZ Good place to go under S1 (pivots positive). Narrowest range In 200 days
APA Reports 11/1. Inside day. Like to see it break today's low
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
BHI Reports 10/19. Has to break S1
QLIK Reports 10/25. Inside day. Like under S1 with max risk today's high
Bye for Now!
