Overall, if this was a correction, not too severe, especially considering how well AAPL AMZN CELGand IBM did-3 leaders. Of course, lots of small tech stocks rallied, but look at what needed to lead and did-SMH, XLK, IBB. And look at what struggled-commodities and financials. Same story. Divergence makes trading tough. The mid August low to early September high trading range in the indexes remains intact. Volume was light with bullish candle and confirmed accumulation day in NASDAQ.GOOG beat earnings big time. The global economy is scary. Midcaps and S & P stocks have to get going as the leaders are getting super long in the tooth. Trade with a plan.
SPY: Closed above S1. September high 123.51. Still more troubling since the slope on the 50 DMA continues to decline. Over 121.20 will be hard to argue with.
DIA: Closed above S1. 117.03 September high. Declining slope on 50 DMA as well. Over 115.23 interesting.
QQQ: 57.35 September high. Never broke S1 or the 200 DMA. Still overbought on the daily RSI. Not the weekly though.
IWM: Closed above S1. September high 73.39. Above 70.40 interesting under 68.35 not so much.
ETFs:
GLD Now that everyone is snoring, one day this will wake up with a vengeance. Not failing though which probably means next direction up.
XLK (Technology) SMH (Semiconductors) Overbought with no signs of rolling over yet
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day after Bearish engulfing candle. Good one to follow the way range breaks.
XLE (Energy) A close over 50 DMA at 64.45 would be interesting. Longer term trend positive: only a weekly close under 62.00 would change that.
OIH (Oil Service Holders) Still lagging behind but held support. The 50 DMA a bit away at 122.50
TLT (The 20 year Treasuries) Filled gap and closed beneath. Although long term trend up intact, today's performance was somewhat disappointing considering how oversold it was. Subs-TBT R1 21.23
XRT (Retail) 50.00 still needs to hold. Like IBB, not overbought. Both areas have room if market continues to firm.
Longs: Focus on Condition 1 stocks with 2 days under the FTP that are not overbought. (Remember that Condition 1 stocks are considered under the FTPS. Can buy ½ over pivots and ½ when clears R1 provided risk sets up)
MOS Over the 80 month moving average although still far from the 200 weekly overhead at 67.55. Did ½ position over the pivots, but will add over R1 56.38. Pivots now negative so like to see 55.50 hold.Day to swing
NEM (Oct 28) Condition 1 with 3 days under the FTP at 63.57. Risk to under 62.28 good but now must clear R1 as well 64.47 to see move to 68.00 with recent high 71.25. Day to swing
ABT (Reported) 2 days under the FTP now at 52.16. Must hold the 10 DMA 51.54 with R1 at 52.51. Has potential for much more and a good one if clears 54.00 to hold. Day to swing
DTE (Oct 24) 2 days under FTP at 50.07 and R1 50.59. A move above 52.59 should give it a good pop before it reports with risk at the 10 DMA and today's low 49.55. Day to mini SRE (Nov 7) similar setup
SGEN (Nov 3) Closed just above the 10 DMA with 2 days under the FTP at 20.65 with R1 21.24. Risk today's low 20.05 with potential to around 28.00 if clears recent high at22.37. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: OR Reversal with positive pivots CHKP VMW POT AAPL CELG CF
Shorts:
FDX If market weakens and this does not cross R1 74.41 with negative pivots at 73.83 if fails could see some support at 71.05 the 10 DMA and then 68.00. Day to mini
VRX Cannot clear 35.92 R1 or could reverse. Otherwise, if stays under the FTP at 35.30, in a weak market still has potential to see 20.00 Day to swing
APA (Nov 3) R1 88.31 which if good should not clear. However, with the 80 month moving average at 88.66, could go up with a close above. Day to mini
Honorable Mention: OR high failure provided does not clear R1 RIG (Risk 48.79) KSS (Nov 10)CLX
Goodnight!