Ok. Back into bullish phases in all but NASDAQ, which remains in its current weak warning phase. Volume did not support the rally as far as an accumulation indicator and the fast moving averages remain overhead hurdles. However, with Monday a do or die day, and lots of earnings coming up, we did get our feet up to our knees wet-yet kept our suits and bathing caps on.
S&P 500 (SPY) 144.50 the fast moving average. 143.23 the line in the sand. Subs: Pivots in all positive.
Russell 2000 (IWM) One reason many investors have wetsuits on-this barely closed above the 50 DMA. Subs: Pivots more neutral-more to prove
Dow (DIA) Has to clear 134.45 now and hold 133.10
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Subs: Possible slingshot combined with weak warning phase gives up a line of support at 66.53 and a reason to watch for a confirmation.
ETFs:
GLD Under 170 in defensive mode unless can get back above
XLF (Financials) I began this yes pointing out a reversal of a 5 year downtrend. Could see this close the last quarter on new 2012 highs Subs: This has really liked 16.01 as pivotal
IBB (Biotechnology) Had the big run this year so really not my first choice anymore as the place to load up long
SMH (Semiconductors) INTC reporting-that should be key. Subs: Slingshot if confirms
XRT (Retail) Would like to see it clear 62.90 for a sign of life
IYT (Transportation) Watch the 50 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Boxed in a range over last 9 trading days and counting-would follow the way that range breaks.
XLE (Energy) Leaving this be unless clear 73.35
REE (Rare Earth Element) Subs: Plan, sell ½ if breaks 4.52 the rest if breaks 4.39. Otherwise, hang on.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Long TBT again with today's low good risk
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Great picks to get you into equities: HLF AMT MCK LEN RAX M VFC were all winners. Anything with an RSI over 92.00 has been dropped off the list to make room for new picks
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LEN 36.50 should now hold
RAX 67.80 should now hold Reports 11/5
CRM Reports 11/15. This is a buy on a 5 or 30 minute if it clears 154.98.
M Reports 11/7. Should clear 40.00 hold 39.40
CL Reports 10/25. Inside day. 108.80 is place to clear
EL Reports 11/1. Inside day. 63.54 Friday high has to clear
MTH Reports 10/25. Improved to condition 1. Like to see 39.90 hold
RKT Reports 11/1. Improved to condition 1. Really needs to clear 74-then could see 2011 high 78.64. Risk 72.68
WRC Condition, phase change and range expansion. 50.75 max risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BCR Reports 10/23. Today's high and R1 line up
AGQ Oversold and still a condition 4 with 51.00 max risk.
Phase Change: FAST 2 inside days. Has to hold today's low and clear 46 RL Reports 10/31. Overall the converging moving averages provided it holds157.25 SFLY Reports 10/30. Unconfirmed accumulation phase and slingshot. Today's low max risk NBL Reports 10/25. Corrected to the 200 DMA and held. Like over 94.00 RHT Like to see this clear the 10 DMA 54.63 F Reports 10/25. 2 Inside days HLF Reports 10/29. 51.55 max risk X Reports 10/30. 2 inside days
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
PXP Reports 11/1. Under 36.13 takes out recent lows. 36.75 good risk
APC Reports 10/29. Under 68.00 breaks recent lows. Today's high max risk
MJN Reports 10/25 Inside day. 71.11 max risk
APA Reports 11/1. 85.83 max risk
QLIK Reports 10/25. 21.78 good risk
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NUAN Reports 11/19. 23.59 max risk
Bye for Now!
