The QQQ worked off an overbought condition on a 2-day RSI and dropped on very light volume. No distribution day, thereby keeping the 4 accumulation days of volume over the last 2 weeks intact, with an upward sloping 50 DMA and no change in phase. Volume was anemic all around, which makes the case right now, for a correction rather than the end of days, which we wrote was inevitable after a dizzying run last week. Today was the clear day to exit most longs from last week. We are mainly back to cash booking huge gains in some of the leading stocks.
SPY: 50 DMA 117.45 Over 121.50 strong
DIA: 111.85 50 DMA.
QQQ: 56.28 the 200 DMA. Over 57.93 strong.
IWM: 50 DMA 68.28. Over 70.16 better
ETFs:
XLK (Technology) 25.50 the 200 DMA. Over 25.90 better
SMH (Semiconductors) No longer overbought. 29.25 support, over 30.38 better
IBB (Biotechnology) Tested 95.25 the low from last week. Over 96.63 better
XLF (Financials) 12.10 must now hold.
OIH (Oil Service Holders) Never performed as well as the other sectors. Rallied to the 50 DMA Friday and failed. Last week's low 112.53. Over 120, impressive
XLE (Energy) Inside day. Over 66.64 would follow. Otherwise, looking at 64.35, the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Closed under the 200 DMA 50.10. If returns above last week's low 49.00.
Longs: Mainly back to cash. Long recommendations are Condition 1 stocks with good risk.
TJX (Nov 15) Condition 1 with 3 days under the FTP at 57.46 and R1 at 57.88. Risk under the 10 DMA at 56.91. If clears all time high 59.72 could see a 10.00 move. Day to swing
REGN (Oct 26) Condition 1 with 3 days under the FTP at 64.04 with clear risk under 62.97 for miniswing. R1 is 65.24 and must also clear Friday high 65.45 since inside day. Day to miniswing
DLTR (Nov 18) Positive pivots at 80.04 with S1 at 79.11 and the 10 DMA at 78.48 making this a candidate for OR Reversal. Old high 81.18. Day to mini
JWN (Nov 10) Positive pivots at 50.40 with S1 49.52 and the 10 DMA at 49.37. Also candidate for OR reversal. Recent high 51.49 then 52.15 back in July. Measured move about 15.00 more if goes. Stranger things have happened. Day to swing
ORLY (Oct 26) Positive pivots at 69.68 with S1 at 68.14 and 10 DMA at 68.45. Recent high 72.00 with possibility to see another 9.00 if breaks that. Day to miniswing
Honorable Mention: OR reversal NEM (S1 65.63) LVS (S1 44.16) FSLR (Oct 27) Way oversold so now must clear R1 54.68
Shorts: All have negative pivots and are under the 200 weekly and the 80 monthly moving average.
PEP with negative pivots at 62.05. But must not clear R1 62.30. Multiyear low 58.50 and if that breaks looks pretty ugly. Day to swing
CP Negative pivots at 52.73. Must not clear R1 at 53.32. The 10 DMA at 51.67 is some support and if that breaks could see 45.00. Day to mini
JPM Negative pivots at 31.37. R1 31.77 which should not clear. Recent low 27.85. In 2009 the low was 15.00. Day to swing
FDX Negative pivots at 74.40 and R1 75.16. The 10 DMA minor support at 72.73 then recent low 64.00. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: OR high failure URBN TWM TLT
Goodnight!