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Wednesday night I wrote that earnings season adds to the fun-oh yea, like anyone holding GOOG today would agree with that! Otherwise, not much changed-semiconductors remain under pressure and homebuilders, financials, oil services firm. Transports and retail digested, rates continue to run and real estate climbed back to unconfirmed bullish. However, that somehow sounds better than what I am seeing as far as the market internals short-term suggest.
S&P 500 (SPY) 144.70 the fast moving average support, although note it is declining in slope with a distribution day in volume in a bullish phase. Subs: Pivots slightly negative with S1 lined up with today's low
Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.88 is the 50 DMA to hold after today's inside day. 84.15 the high for the last 2 days. Subs: Pivots negative
Dow (DIA) Distribution day in volume with short-term internals, like everywhere weakening
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Weak warning phase with distribution in volume.
ETFs:
GLD 170 the elusive number for the bulls.
XLF (Financials) 16.44 the 2012 high, but with a weakening market, might have to see another test of 16.00 first
SMH (Semiconductors) 2 inside days within the bear phase-pretty darn important
XRT (Retail) Would like to see it hold 63.00, then we are back looking at the 50 DMA. Subs: The trendline featured in today's video is one to be respected-could not clear
IYT (Transportation) Failed the 200 DMA which means some consolidation above the 50 DMA not such a bad thing.
IYR (Real Estate) Crossed the 50 DMA. 65.40 is important to clear especially since the return to bullish is unconfirmed without a second close above the 50 DMA. Subs: Back over the channel-and best performer today.
USO (US Oil Fund) Opened weak, then rallied back to resistance. Subs: Pivots still negative so can watch SCO.
OIH (Oil Services) 41.75 decent resistance. Today's low the 50 DMA
REE (Rare Earth Element) Subs: As long as this remains in a recovery phase, staying the course
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Another good run has stalled with few great picks to choose from which usually means, patience until further notice.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EL Reports 11/1. Really has to clear 65. And hold 63.57
WPI Reports 10/30. Has to hold today's low. Clear R1 which lines up with today's high
SWN Reports 11/1. 35.85 is the 10 DMA and has to clear today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
XOP Inside day. 56.10 is max risk with today's low closer
MTH Reports 10/25 Has to clear 42.34 and hold today's low.
AGU Reports 11/7. Would give this only room to 104.30
LMT Reports 10/24. 94.00 max risk
Phase Change: PAY Unconfirmed phase change to recovery. 31.22 max risk ENR Reports 11/9. 73.64 max swing risk. Otherwise, should hold 73.85 the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
WPRT Reports 11/1. 31.10 now max risk
LTD Reports 11/14. Inside day. 49.30 max risk
MOS Reported Inside day. Should break today's low and that will keep it under the 200 DMA
TSLA Reports 10/31. OR high failure preferred against today's high to control risk
BWA Reports 10/25. Today's high max risk. Like to see S1 break
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
HFC Reports 11/7. Inside and narrow range day. Has to break today's low
Bye for Now!
