Was it the talk of the FED doing even a bigger injection into QE3, the dull test of October lows in S&P 500 that could not create a panic, AAPL turning around or the long-term market internals which indicate that SPY is neutral to bullish the reason the market turned from down 90.00 to up 2.38 in the last 20 minutes of trading? Each sector tells its own story-
S&P 500 (SPY) Subs: Confirmed weak warning phase with R1, 50 DMA and today's high lining up.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Odds favor that the weak warning phase means a further rally with the attraction to retest the 50 DMA.
Dow (DIA) The 50 DMA close-133.40, which also matches Monday's high
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Subs: Slingshot possible with new 60-day low and close near highs-wouldn't that be nice! R1 and today's high line up
ETFs:
GLD Looks like it bottomed on Friday followed by an inside day Monday. Subs: 169.40 is the 10 DMA resistance, but would follow the range break
XLF (Financials) Wrote that this could be forming a double top or be a great buy opportunity around 16.00 if held. Tomorrow should be more confirming which way, especially if this takes out 16.20
SMH (Semiconductors) A return over Monday's high after an inside day, compelling
XRT (Retail) 62.50 the 50 DMA and pivotal area.
IYT (Transportation) Step back and there is a range this year between 86 and 96. Subs: Today's high lines up with the 10 and 50 DMA and R1-90.15
IYR (Real Estate) confirmed warning phase but held the 10 DMA and over 64.90 could see new life
USO (US Oil Fund) 32.52 October low
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Tested that channel and the 10 DMA which means over today's high which lines up over the 50 DMA should be good
XLE (Energy) Tested and held the 50 DMA. Could get going again over 74.15
NUGT (Gold Miners 3X Bull) Subs: 30 minute OR breakout end of day. Watch 16.00 for support GDX with 52.10 the 65 weekly to hold
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT broke the 200 DMA which means defending the rates at these lows proving to be tougher and tougher
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Today's video spells out a game plan. A good time to be looking at beta again.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EOG Reports 10/30. 111.75max risk and needs to clear 113.22 R1
M Reports 11/7. If holds 39.75, looks good over today's high.
EXP Reports 10/29. Inside day. Follow the range
LMCA Reports 11/6. Today's low (10 DMA) max risk.
TWC Reports 10/31. 98.40 max risk. Has to clear pivots then today's high and R1
FLS Reports 10/29. Today's low max risk and should hold 131.75
MUR Reports 10/31. 60.53 max risk. Longer term, over 65 looks very strong
TIF Reports 11/29. Today's low max risk. 64.45 the 65 weekly moving average
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
C Inside day. Returned over the 200 weekly last week. August 2007!
UNP Inside day. 123.12 max risk and over today's high, R1 line up
WPI Reports 10/30. Inside day. Second try above today's high should be good
OPEN Reports 11/1. Had a phase change to bullish and range expansion. Best closing price since September 19th.Closest support is 45.95
RKT Reports 11/1. Today's low max risk
HD Reports 11/8. Ideally should clear 62.12
EBAY 2 inside days. Friday low 49.57
Phase Change: PAY Today's low max risk. Waiting for phase change to CRM Weak warning phase. Reports 11/20. Like to see 148.70 hold URI Over 39.44 looks good VHC 2 inside days. 27.44 max risk
Shorts: Nothing with less than 12.00 RSI which has reduced the choices
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
PSA Reports 11/8. 137.76 max risk. Under 136 should continue to 134 and perhaps lower
APA Reports 11/1. Today's high max risk
PXP Reports 11/1. 37.89 good risk. 36.07 interim support
Bye for Now!
