A couple of caveats remain. First, is volume. Conflicting signals in that QQQ has had a good amount of accumulation days (had one today) as does SPY (did not have one today), but, the volume remains under the daily average since early October. Second, is the market internals with VIX overbought. Yes, price matters and the QQQs are so close to the all time high, an impressive fact indeed. Energy, (XLE) which fueled (pun intended) this most recent leg up, has had 7 days in a row above the floor pivots. XLK(Technology) caught up some, but has yet to clear the high on October 14th at 26.04. XLF (Financials) has 13.48, August high to deal with in overbought territory. I have liked XRT (Retail) for quite some time now, but some healthy digestion would really be comforting now that it's overbought on both the weekly and daily RSIs.
SPY 127.60, the 200 DMA next hurdle.123.50 (the area it cleared and followed through from) now big area of support to hold.
QQQ Actually not overbought which means the leading stocks are the best to watch now for next direction.
IWM August 31 high 73.89, the 160 EMA 74.12. Busted through 71.30 area, now key support.
ETFs:
XLK (Technology) Held 25.50 and like QQQ, not overbought. Watching this sector/group carefully
SMH (Semiconductors) 31.70 clears the 50 weekly and 200 daily moving averages. Tested and closed just shy of those points. Another one to watch.
IBB (Biotechnology) 99.30 the 200 DMA which it tested today. September high 99.54. Under 97.50 early warning sign.
IYT (Transportation) Took out August 31st high, but many hurdles remain, most obviously, the 200 DMA.
XLF (Financials) 13.48 high of last 2 months. 13.00 now key support
OIH* (Oil Service Holders). Good run today, but under the 70 EMA while many other groups/sectors traded above. If the market rolls, the longer term charts are still broken down.
KRE (Regional Banks) Even more overbought on weekly/Daily RSI.
TBT* (Ultrashort Treasury Bonds) Worked off some of the overbought condition today with an inside day. Highest close since right before the FED meeting September 19th.
Longs: Good day for last night's featured picks WLT MA MRX FSLR X PANL. NOTE: if you get 1.5 ATRs in one day, (like in NTES) it's okay to take a profit. Today's video on the 5 minute opening range entry for a mini to swing trade.
TZOO Inside day on the 50 and 10 DMA with clear risk at under 29.08 for a new swing. Has to clear R1 as well at 32.23 but has positive pivots at 31.33 making it ok to buy a reversal with S1 at 30.50 for a day or miniswing trade. 44.50 next overhead resistance. Day to swing
QCOM A NASDAQ stock not overbought and possibly ready for a phase change from recovery to accumulation if clears 54.08 the 200 DMA. Has positive pivots at 53.26 and underlying support at 51.20. The 50 DMA is at 51.00 which now must hold. One of the stocks that if basing, could see a good rally to 59.00-60.00. Day to swing
ABT Had a big red candle last week, but since, trading within that range. Has 2 days under the pivots at 53.50 with a good wall of support at 52.90. R1 at 53.78. Top of that candle 55.61 and a close above that area looks good for a move to 60.00 Day to swing.
APD Wedged between the 10 DMA 83.17 and the 50 DMA 80.12. For now, R1 should also clear at 83.72, but pivots positive (82.93) so will watch for an OR reversal as well. If closes above R1 could see 88.00, the 200 DMA next level at least. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: MA WLT MRX PANL RHT GOOG MSFT All are candidates for OR reversals. YUM (ID has to hold 53.15 S1) IBM and AAPL have run back to the 10 DMA after a post earnings beating. X SPG report tomorrow FSLR Thursday. Please check earnings on your positions.
Shorts: We haven't seen a decent short setup which is no wonder, but I will keep listing ones that remain in a bear phase and good to watch if market rolls over. Clearly, NFLX is in big trouble.
DVA (Nov 3) Positive pivots at 68.81 but under the 50 DMA at 69.10. Would not risk above that level and only sell weakness or a break of today's low 67.92 with an opening range failure either 5 or 30 minutes. Day to mini
SLV Has positive pivots at 30.87 and the 10 DMA at 30.91 so another one to sell only on weakness if breaks S1 30.55. Day to mini
PEP One of the few with negative pivots at 62.12 resting on the 50 DMA at 62.11. Cannot clear R1 62.49 which means watch for an OR high failure if stays beneath. If breaks S1 61.74 a good follow through possible. Day to swing
TAP As long as it does not clear the 50 DMA 41.85 and breaks S1 41.38 still one in a bearish phase. Day to swing
Goodnight!
