Incredible sideways action the last 4 days of the week in S&P 500, the Dow, and a test but hold of the 200 DMA in NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. Still lots of earnings ahead, but the big guns are done-all with poor reports, yet apparently deeply discounted after the first one, GOOG's, proverbial you know what hit the fan. The week therefore ended decidedly undecided. Indexes remain in accelerated warning phases. Seems that SPY might have the most to lose and QQQ the most to gain. And there you are-follow the lead up or down.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.28 a good number to watch. Downside, under 140.50 and the 200 DMA seems likely Subs: Negative pivots.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.00 has to clear or under 80.43 see 77 level not out of the question. Subs: Negative pivots.
Dow (DIA) 131.35 has to clear or 129.55 is next. Subs: Pivots slightly negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Over 65.62 could save the day. Otherwise, 61.60 next real major support
ETFs:
GLD Could not hold 166 so now we are looking at 163.50 Subs: Neutral pivots which means anything can still happen
XLF (Financials) Tested but closed above the 50 DMA keeping the bullish phase intact. Like to see it clear 16.03 or that hold could be ephemeral.
IBB (Biotechnology) Friday was key as been thinking this move was done for a while, but thought perhaps it could have one more rise left. It did not. 128 is the 200 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) The best hope besides a reversal in NASDAQ. 31.23 has to clear or the possibility remains that a right shoulder to a bigger head and shoulders top is forming Subs: Closed to confirm a slingshot, but with the rest of the market tentative, have not jumped in yet. Pivots positive
XRT (Retail) Weak warning phase. Looks better if can clear 61.85
IYR (Real Estate) Another test of the 200 DMA.
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day, but unless it gaps over 32.15, leave it alone
OIH (Oil Services) Looks pretty heavy Subs: One for an OR high failure against R1
XLE (Energy) Subs: Teeny negative slope on 50 DMA. Watch R1 and S1
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs back over the 200 DMA. Watch 123.10
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Friday's pearls DE OPEN for ½ ATR. Mind the consolidation of the SPY DIA and watch which way QQQs go from here. Not including anything that reports before Thursday.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ADS 142.12 good risk point. 147 target possible
MTB 102.70 max risk. Needs to clear Friday high
LMCA Reports 11/6. Like to see 111.30 hold and R1 clear over 114.19 before earnings good see nice run
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JBHT Really in an accumulation phase. Has to clear 57.60 to look real good.
AMGN another narrow range day and has to clear Friday's high.
WSM Reports 11/15. Like this over 46.50
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DE Reports 11/21. Should now hold 85.00 max risk. Through 86 clears weekly Bollinger Band.
EBAY Improved in condition. 49.00 now has to hold.
EOG Reports 11/5. 113.10 has to hold. 115.45 next hurdle to clear
PRU Reports 11/7. Negative pivots but, closed above them. Risk 57.00 and has to clear 57.65
PNRA U-Turn . Still has a slingshot from 10/04, but if can hold 168.35 area, could tackle the high of that day
OPEN Reports 11/1. 45.60 now max risk (New app for iPhone could be factor on run)
SLW Reports 11/5. Another one with an overhead slingshot but improved to condition 1 if holds 39.00 area. Has to clear 40.91 to stick
SAP 2 Inside days. Has to hold Friday low. Slingshot high on 9/21 so again, that has to clear-73.86 to stick
SIG Reports 11/20. Inside day. Still holding from last Thursday and could see more upside in uncharted territory
NBL Big run after earnings. 93.85 the 10 DMA now should hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: FDO confirmed bullish phase with an inside day. 64.92 max risk IR confirmed bullish. Inside day. 46.00 max risk FSLR Reports in the morning. Tight risk around 23.55 HOG held the 200 DMA but has to get back above Friday high AMZN Brick wall. Rallied to the 10 DMA. 233 closest risk
Shorts: Nothing with less than 12.00 RSI which has reduced the choices
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
VMW 86.72 good risk with a break of S1 best to wait for
ESRX Reports 11/5. 63 is max risk. 58.95 is gap low as first target
SOHU Reports 11/5. Friday's high max risk
EWZ 53.95 good risk off the pivots. Under 53 could see 51.20 September lows
SBUX Reports 11/1. 46.58 max risk.
Bye for Now!
