Nice to see some of the sector and groups in the green-real estate, energy, homebuilders, semiconductors, transportation, financials. Retail struggling still. Now perhaps the indexes can finally cross the fast moving averages. That is what we will be watching for. And after a decent amount of time in digestion mode, following the next rally seems to make sense.
S&P 500 (SPY) Tuesday high and the fast moving average line up. Subs: R1 and today's high line up
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. 84.55 resistance to clear, 81.65 support. Subs: Watch the bear flag I showed on today's video which will get negated if clears Monday's high
Dow (DIA) 135.70 and above clears a trendline that connects recent highs
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) If could not reach the 50 DMA today, then more than likely will try again for the fast moving average Subs: 3 days under the FTP and today's high and R1 line up.
ETFs:
GLD 174 the area to clear as the intraday trading remains choppy
XLF (Financials) 2 bottoms at 15.62 and close above the fast moving average. Subs: Like through 15.80
IBB (Biotechnology) 145.23 the all-time high
SMH (Semiconductors) Over 32.00 looks good. Subs: Positive pivots
XRT (Retail) Watch it over 63.25
IYT (Transportation) Subs: 88.75 is the number to clear
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. Subs: 64.65 is the number to clear
XLE (Energy) 74.55 number to clear
REE (Rare Earth Element) Subs: Got close to the 50 DMA 4.33 which gives this a good risk (1 and ½ ATRs) if gets back over 4.61
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Earnings Season is here so please check dates on your positions
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TSCO Closed under pivots but they are slightly stacked positive. Today's low max risk. 101.28 recent high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FIO Long for swing with a move over 31.00 reason to add. Today's low now good risk
COF Inside day. 57.80 good risk. 59.75 last swing high
EOG 113.20 max risk and 120 its last swing high
ESRX Must hold today's low. 64.46 recent high to clear
LYB Has to hold 10 DMA. 53.77 recent high to clear
EXP New highs 2012. 48.10 the old high to hold
VMC Inside day ad return above the 10 DMA. Has to hold today's low and clear 48 with49.99 last swing high
SHW Improved to condition 1. Has to clear 150 on a closing basis and hold 148.50
VFC Improved condition and had decent volume. 159.30 good close risk
BEN Improved to condition 1. Inside day. Has to hold today's low. 128.20 recent highs
Phase Change: NBL 92.40 should hold the 200 DMA. 94.00 has to clear. TIF Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. If opens unchanged, like to see 61.95 hold and it clear Monday's high ENR Accumulation phase if today's low hold after inside day. Over 76.00 looks good FSLR 22.40 should hold. Through 24.22 takes out the 200 DMA WDC Oversold ad ear the 200 DMA max risk 37.50. Like to see it clear today's high
Shorts: Not seeing much I really like since many of the bearish stocks have cleared either the 200 weekly or 80 monthly moving averages
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BIDU 113.10 max risk
FDX Cannot clear 86.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NUS Up 4 days. If breaks today's low could see quick test of the 10 DMA 38.90 or lower
Bye for Now!
