Feels like we are trading in a sequel of The Fast and the Furious. Fast moving average? The Furious 50 DMA? It's all good though since when markets digest near higher levels, generally, that is a good sign. Key is to not overinvest and stay flexible and frosty since when she blows, she will blow!
S&P 500 (SPY) Accumulation day and close over the fast moving average. Subs: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) And then there's this-a distribution day in volume with an attempt but no go over the fast moving average. Subs: Watch the bear flag I showed on today's video which will get negated if clears Monday's high. Pivots negative
Dow (DIA) Closed just shy of the fast moving average
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Tried but could not cross the fast moving average. Giving it A+ for effort though and for the accumulation day in volume Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD 174 the area to clear and nice inside day
XLF (Financials) This closed well which means watch out bears. Subs: One that signaled and told us to hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) This does not take no for an answer
SMH (Semiconductors) Come on already. Over 32.00 looks good.
XRT (Retail) Inside day
IYT (Transportation) Subs: 88.75 is the number to clear
IYR (Real Estate) Subs: 64.65 cleared and then it closed right on the area-follow which way it goes from here best guess
OIH (Oil Services) Distribution phase unconfirmed and oversold
XLE (Energy) Another one living in the Fast and Furious zone.
REE (Rare Earth Element) Inside day. Subs: Got close to the 50 DMA 4.32 which gives this a good risk (1 and ½ ATRs) if gets back over 4.51
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TSCO Closed under pivots again with 94.92 now max risk or at the 50 DMA.
CF Corrected to the 10 DMA. Today's low max risk. R1 and today's high line up
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BEN Has to hold today's low. 128.20 recent highs
AEM Inside day. Over 53.12 should continue move up
BFST Improved to condition 1 with today's low max risk.
AMZN 254.50 now support to hold although could look at reversal against S1 or a breakout
CAVM Inside day. Max risk the 50 DMA 32.27.
LULU Inside day. Like today's low max risk
IBM 2 inside days. 209.47 S1 risk
LMT inside day. Over 94.00 new 2012 highs
GOOG Inside day. Held 759.50 today so good tight risk
CRM returned to condition 3. Today's low max risk
PPG Returned to condition 1. 115.80 good risk
Phase Change: NBL 92.40 should hold the 200 DMA. 94.00 has to clear. TIF confirmed phase change to accumulation. Has to hold today's low ENR 2 Inside days. Over 76.00 looks good DDS Unconfirmed phase change to bullish with today's low max risk. WDC Oversold with the 200 DMA max risk 37.24. VMW 2 inside days. Unconfirmed accumulation phase. 96.15 the 200 DMA to hold on close
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CXO Unconfirmed phase change to distribution provided it does not cross back over today's high. Has an upward sloping 50 DMA below at 93.05 which must break to stay with trade
BIDU Inside day. Today's high max risk
MJN Inside day. Today's high max risk
BBBY Inside day.
JOY Narrowest range in 201 days with an inside day. Resting on the 50 DMA which means can go either way
FB 22.60 good resistance. Under 21.73 breaks this week's lows and could see drop to 19.50
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NUS Up 5 days. Inside day. If breaks today's low could see quick test of the 10 DMA 38.90 or lower
Bye for Now!
