Two bits of good news, the ISM, Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 26th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 28th consecutive month. The PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to Augusts' reading of 50.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. Although hard to fathom, there is somewhat of an economy recovery. Technically, the picture looks much bleaker.
SPY Took out the August low. Now, market is looking at next support at the last swing low the week ending September 30, 2010, before the FED began injecting money, 106.66. 110.27 was the August low. Will watch that number as resistance with better overhead at 112.50.
DIA Did not take out the 200 weekly moving average at 106.24 with the August low 105.72. Keep an eye on this average as best hope to hold at those levels.
QQQ 52.00 broke now see next support 50.00 (49.93 to be exact). After that the 200 weekly is 45.00. Only a move above 52.30 would look encouraging for the now former leading stocks.
IWM Looking back at 2010, 58.65 area next support. 63.75 overhead resistance.
ETFs:
GLD 162.95 overhead resistance with move under today's low a good reason to look at a new short. Otherwise, momentum still suggests more upside.
SLV*Negative phase intact. Subs-if cannot clear 29.67 the positive stacked FTP, will short under S1 29.19 in anticipation of a move down to 20.00 the 200 weekly moving average.
XLK* (Technology)Not too far from its 80 month moving average and holding up better than a lot of other sectors. Subs-R1 at 23.52
IBB (Biotechnology) Hopefully, Sunday's featured pick alerted you to short biotechnology IBB and/or a couple of its components (BIIB VRX). What happens after an inside day in a bear phase.
TLT (The 20 year Treasuries) soared again. 123.15 old high from 2008 which cleared today. A good indication of the non-inflation status currently and the fear in the market.
Longs: I was out today due to a cold/fever. Will return in the morning. Will be watching DIA (F is one) as well as all indexes since today, none took out the FTPs even with the meek attempt at a rally.
RAI Positive Pivots at 37.55 with the 80 month moving average at 36.83, a reasonable risk since just under S1 at 37.23. If the pivots hold, after the inside day, through today's high 37.86 should continue up with next overhead resistance 39.87 recent high. .80 ATR so requires patience for a swing trade. Day to Swing
CL Long term trend still positive and holding a positively sloped 50 DMA at 87.83 which is a good maximum risk with market in free fall. Held S1 today as well, so can also look even tighter at 88.20 a support level. Must clear R1 at 89.33 and the 10 DMA at 89.75. But a close over that will look decent for a hold. Day to mini
ORLY Long term trend still positive and holding a positively sloped 50 DMA at 64.14 which is a good maximum risk with market in free fall.R1 at 66.13 which must clear and the 10 DMA at 68.36 next resistance. Day to mini
Shorts: Shorts from Sunday money today. BIIB RHT OR high failures and GOOG VRX VRSN SQMOR low breakdowns. Classic rules-everything I have consistently taught. New recommendations are not oversold. Like all the picks, can sell strength (OR high failure) or weakness provided it does not clear R1.
WAG Under the 200 weekly at 34.10 negative pivots at 32.69. Unless it clears R1 32.92 could see move to 30.50 next support. Day to mini
ACN Unless it clears R1 53.12, has negative pivots at 52.37 with next support at 2011 low 47.40. After that, next support at the 200 weekly moving average 40.65. Day to swing
BKE Unless it clears 39.00, has slightly negative pivots at 38.86 with lots of room to the downside if fails S1 as well, 37.88. Some support August low 33.97, then next support 29.50 the 200 weekly moving average. Day to swing
CHRW Looks now like a bear flag forming which breaks under today's low at 66.18 with negative pivots at 67.33. Support at 60.00 the 200 weekly moving average. Day to mini
Honorable Mention: OR high failures: SQM VRSN RHTKO
Goodnight!