Nice consolidation at these high levels ahead of the jobs report. (Expectations are for a rise to 8.2% from 8.1% so anything much worse or better will have an immediate impact.) All indexes over the fast moving average which means the range of the week has broken to the upside. Can the market reach the recent highs and then surpass them? See no reason why not. It's more of how much volume comes in and how much chop in between investors can take.
S&P 500 (SPY) Another Accumulation day. Unless the lows of today break, this looks real Subs: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed over the fast moving average on good volume. Next hurdle is 84.65 level then it should be off to the races. Subs: Pivots positive
Dow (DIA) Subs: If you review this week's videos, you will see the trendline I drew in from recent highs. Closed just under it today
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Closed over the fast moving average and like IWM, has to clear 69.60 to continue north Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD New high close for the year. Watch SLV too
XLF (Financials) A hold of 16.00 very positive
IBB (Biotechnology) Subs: A couple of brick walls or glass ceilings to note-ALXN AMGN
SMH (Semiconductors) Holding my breath for 32.00
XRT (Retail) I write about following range breaks after inside days-here is why
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Cleared the channel which means will look for a reversal to reduce risk if not already long
IYR (Real Estate) Wouldn't say I'm worried about the weakness, but I will say that confidence when all domestic sectors are firing is easier Subs: If clears 64.75 might take another shot
USO (US Oil Fund) Filled gap. Subs: Watch to see if this rolls over
OIH (Oil Services) Accumulation phase unconfirmed and inside day
XLE (Energy) Long term I really like this over 76.50. For now, not the hot place to be
REE (Rare Earth Element) Subs: Will be looking to buy for a swing if holds 4.50
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Main focus on existing picks-ones not overbought or just setting up
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CF A gorgeous example of a correction followed by a gap higher, then a 30 min OR buy over R1. STUDY!
TSCO Improved to condition 1. 98.00 good point to hold
BSFT Keep your eyes on this if holds today's low and clears today's highs
AMZN 264.11 recent high
TROW Improved condition. Today's low max risk
CAVM Max risk the 50 DMA 32.42
LULU Back over 76.42 should continue with risk now75.35
CRM 153.50 is the max risk. Like to see it hold over 158 as well
EQT Improved to condition 1. Today's low max risk. Last week made 2012 highs
RRC Improved to condition 1 and today's low max risk
KORS Inside and narrow range day improved to condition 2. Like to see today's high clear
AGU Inside day with 10 DMA 103.32.
PXD Inside day. Like to see R1 clear and it hold 102.66 XOP similar inside day
Phase Change: ENR Over 75.00 looks good. WDC Would not touch it anew if cannot hold 38.00 Note: A semi that is really oversold to watch is INTC-made new lows, no slingshot, but over R1 could see good pop to 25.00 NBL Inside day. Max risk today's low.
Shorts: Day to mini
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CXO confirmed phase change to distribution and inside day. Should not clear the 200 DMA. Has an upward sloping 50 DMA below, at 93.10 which must break to stay with trade
MJN 73.58 max risk now
BBBY Today's high now max risk
DECK Inside day. Under low could be good day to mini
FB 22.00 now good resistance. Could see drop to 19.50
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NUS If breaks today's low could see quick test of the 10 DMA 39.23 or lower
WPRT If breaks today's low could see test of 28.20
BA Anemic bounce from recent lows. Today's high max risk
Bye for Now!
