Unconfirmed phase change in QQQ to recovery, volume patterns all around still uninspiring, slope on 50 DMA more negative, all but SPY back in channel, price-in middle of range from August low to August high. Yet bears have been squeezed and lots of stocks have healthy looking charts after holding 80 month lows even after the last dump.
SPY: If holds above 114.40, the 50 DMA at 118.25 and the 80 monthly 122.50.
DIA: Cleared the 80 monthly with today's close. 112.46 the 50 DMA and must hold 109.30 to hold recent up move then the 200 weekly 106.25.
QQQ: Still far from the long term moving averages. 56.00 next resistance, 53.50 support to hold.
IWM: Like SPY has overhead at the 80 monthly MA at 68.50 yet above the 200 weekly at 65.20. The midcaps have to stay in the party.
ETFs:
GLD Still range bound. Has to cross R1 at 161.54 first to test 165. Otherwise, has to fail 158.75 to see 155. Subs: Bought strangles-October 165 calls, 155 puts with idea that in 2 weeks there could be a 90.00 plus move in futures either way.
SLV Since the gap lower September 23rd, the recent trading has remained within the island and well under all the work done from May to Mid-September. Aside for now.
XLK (Technology) Looking at top of recent range 25.29 and the 200 DMA 29.50 if 24.00 holds.
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared 28.00 the 50 DMA, but not the 80 month at 28.50. Next hurdle now for a real trend change and not just a good bear rally.
IBB (Biotechnology) On last run, tested the 200 DMA at 99.50.
XLE (Energy) Cleared the 80 month not the 200 weekly moving average. 60.00 now pivotal.
OIH* Longer term trend weaker than XLE since still far from the 80 monthly and 200 weekly MA. If market rolls over, this is one to look to short.
TLT (The 20 year Treasuries) Long TBT after today's failure in TLT of 120.00. Last rally took it to 21.20.
IYR (Real Estate) Has potential to see 60.00 provided recent lows hold.
XLF (Financial) If holds 11.80 on the way to 12.50. Another area to look at for short if market rolls over.
Longs: So many good picks this week. Since I do not know what you daytrade, mini or swing trade, please make sure you keep track of profit targets. Some like JOYG VMW have or got really close to having 1.5 ATRs. And, if swing trading, ok to trail up those stops using S1 as I showed in today's video. At this point, many are extended therefore picks judicious since also Friday and concerned about weekend risk for longer term traders. If this really is the bottom, there will be many new opportunities next week.
AMZN Closed right above the 10 DMA at 221.15 and did not do much today considering its leadership qualities. See a low risk if use today's low 217.55 especially if can get an OR reversal against the positive pivots 220.95 or against S1 at 218.27. Then really small risk to today's low. And at this point, I'm all about a small risk. 237 would be next overhead resistance. Day to mini.
DLTR Underperformed today but still a Condition 1 with an inside day and positive pivots at 76.77. Another low risk to S1 76.00 with potential to match recent high 79.35 and possible target 85.00. Also OR reversal candidate. Day to swing
CELG Underperformed today but still a Condition 1 with an inside day and positive pivots at 63.27. Maximum risk 62.65. Also OR reversal candidate. Recent high 65.86 with possible target 80.00 if that area clears. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: OR Reversal Now Condition 1 KMB RAI DECK LO IBM (Nuggets List says Condition 4 IBM because of slope on 50 DMA negative) Others: PANL PXD UA TIF ROK CAT ORLY
Shorts: With stocks under the 200 DMA and momentum shift, would like to see a failure of S1 before new entries.
BTU Positive pivots so must break S1 34.93 with risk to today's high 36.02 for swing and the FTP at 35.47 for mini. Day to swing
IDCC Negative pivots and must not clear R1 and today's high 49.87 or would consider buying instead since clears the 200 DMA as well. But, if stays under 48.66 also under the 200 DMA. Could see a move down to 30.50 if stays weak. Day to mini
Honorable Mention: DUG: Not ready yet, but if gets down to 33.50 area, retraces to 50 DMA after a golden cross. Head's up to put on your radar if market rolls. Not touching it yet.
Goodnight!