>Low volume start of correction/digestion, which is always welcomed by those looking to add or reenter after the market works off overbought conditions. NASDAQ had an inside day with AAPL still hanging tough. Overall, the sectors that have been strong also corrected with the exception of biotechnology, which made yet another new all-time high.
S&P 500 (SPY) 144.45 is the support area. Since it closed under 147, signs point to more correction. But, that is way different than saying Friday was a top. Subs:Pivots negative with S1 at today's low and R1 at today's high
Russell 2000 (IWM) 84.45-65 is support area. 86.96 now the new 2-year high to eventually clear.Subs: Similar to SPY with the pivots S1 and R1
Dow (DIA) 133 would be big correction-one enough to frighten weaker longs. But it would also be a great area to look for reentries. Subs: The week is young, but could be an example of when an instrument goes through the weekly Bollinger band and crosses back down beneath. Just pointing out possibilities, but cannot deny the strong bull phase.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Hammer candle and inside day. Would follow the range break for next short term move
ETFs:
GLD After Friday's DOJI day and attempt at 2012 highs, took a breather. 169 support
XLF (Financials) Could hold 16.01 old 2012 high. If not 15.70 is strong support.
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs and why one should never fight a trend.
SMH (Semiconductors) Tested and closed near support. Now, watching this to see if can firm and gain upward momentum
IYT (Transportation) Dropped back to the 200 DMA. Another group that has underperformed and would like to see hold and firm.Subs: Note that channel I showed in today's video. Looking for that to cross back above once again.
IYR (Real Estate) Sometimes those weekly Bollinger Bands are harbingers for a shorter term move. But, still a hot group and will watch for signs correction is done.
USO (US Oil Fund) 36.70 the 200 DMA failed and thereby prevented this from confirming a phase change.Subs: Would be a seller of rallies provided it does not cross the 200 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Also featured on today's video
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
V Has the 2-day correction with risk to 10 DMA a bit far, but can use 132.58 the low before the FED meeting.
ESV Has to hold 57.65 and clear 58.63 today's high
RRC 68.33 the 10 DMA max risk. Like to see the FTP clear first then today's high. 2012 high made last week
KSS 52.74 max risk. Like to see pivots clear. R1 and today's high line up
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
VFC inside day and neutral pivots. Max risk today's low. Just made new highs which means uncharted territory
ASML Inside day and held Friday's low. Neutral pivots and must hold today's low and clear today's high
KORS Inside day. Max risk today's low. R1 and today's high line up
PCYC Inside day. Has to hold today's low, clear 64.27 R1
TSCO Inside day with max risk 96.81. If holds 97.50 on open look for a 5 minute OR break. Then, has to cross R1 98.24
REGN Today's low good max risk
SHW Inside day neutral pivots. Has to hold 144 clear 146.56
LTD Inside day Neutral pivots has to clear R1
COST High weekly RSI but 2 inside days so can use Friday low for risk. Neutral pivots
CTXS Inside day.80.20 max risk the 10 DMA. Neutral pivots but improved to condition 1
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMGN Unconfirmed back to bullish. Not oversold. Has to clear R1 82.57
Phase Change: QCOM Inside day. Golden cross but price is far. Has to hold today's low. BLK 182 the 200 DMA to hold with an inside day APD confirmed accumulation phase. 84.95 support FDO See no indication of earnings report-63.60 max risk and has to clear 64.47
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CHKP cannot clear 47.61
TKR 41.50 overhead resistance. Support 38.50
CERN For new entries, prefer reversal against 71.90
BIDU Should not clear 115.63 and has some support at 111.36 the 10 DMA
CSTR Should not clear 52.08 with support at 50.00
NFLX 58.42 resistance then 53.00 support with good possibility of lower prices from there
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
MCP Cannot clear today's high and should break 13.11
Bye for Now!
