Today was the day the market needed to get some legs. Instead, it was more on its knees for the crawl. Nothing horrible has happened, but the near-term internals signaling somewhat bearish along with the longer term internals still very bullish have to play themselves out.
S&P 500 (SPY) 147 remains pivotal on a closing basis. There was a teeny accumulation in volume. Subs: Now with positive pivots, if today's low holds, can look for a reversal or breakout over today's high
Russell 2000 (IWM) After 2 doji days, today had a bearish engulfing pattern which means that continue to watch this for signs of more correction or time to buy, buy, buy. Subs: 85.36 an important low and right where S1 is. This has neutral pivots which means over today's high should be ok.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Small accumulation day in volume as high RSIs continue to be a factor in bringing in fresh buyers. Subs: Pivots positive-watch S1 which lines up with today's low
ETFs:
GLD Inside day followed by a narrow range day. Paused.
XLF (Financials) Disappointing close, which means back to looking at 15.70 area support unless it gets through today's high
IBB (Biotechnology) Subs: Interesting look at the weekly Bollinger Band which could be important as the week comes to an end
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed phase change to warning. Looking to see what happens at 32.40 or if it can turn around and close over 33
XRT (Retail) Touched the 10 DMA and rallied better than most other groups-XHB was an exception. Subs: 64.05 now should hold
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Hanging out in the middle of the channel. Will register as an unconfirmed phase change to recovery
IYR (Real Estate) Could not hold the 10 DMA. 66.20 was the 2012 high until recently. Now, after the FED announcement, if cannot hold-the contrarians could have their day
OIH (Oil Services) If holds today's low ok, but the 80 monthly moving average I wrote as resistance keeps the longer term bear trend intact
XLE (Energy) Has to hold today's low. But unlike OIH, long term trend turned up last year
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 16.22 the fast moving average. Note that TLT went back over the 200 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EXP 45.55 max risk. Closed under pivots but register positive stack tomorrow.
RRC Ideally want to see this cross R1.
UNP Like the doji on the 10 DMA. Has to clear R1 ad today's high
HFC Inside day and 3 days under pivots with pivots projecting positively stacked. 40.25 max risk the 10 DMA
FLS closed above the pivots but stack is negative. Has to hold the FTP. 135.57 2012 high
MMM Improved to condition 1. Pivots stacked negative but closed above. 92.56 max risk. 2012 high 94.30
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WPI 84.02 has to clear and 82.78 has to hold
KSS 53.07 max risk. Also like to see it clear recent highs
CRM Like to see the pivots hold. 164.75 is the 2012 high
CAVM 34.68 max risk the 10 DMA and recent highs should clear
CRUS Max risk 43.42 and has a slingshot from 45.49 that has to clear
LNKD With the highs so close, must now hold the 10 DMA
LTD Has to hold today's low. Over 50.89 new highs
MTH Inside day. Over today's high and R1 next point to clear 41.29 multi-year high
IACI At the top of the channel featured on this week's video. Gap higher and should be a good one for a 5 min OR signal. Then would look for a move to 56.00
SWI Narrowest range in 134 days. 59.16 max risk
NTGR improved to condition 1. Like to see this clear R1, hold 38.60 level
Phase Change: APD R1 and today's high line up CREE 28.25 max risk. Today's high and R1 line up MSM Unconfirmed to accumulation. Would rather buy if clears 73.25, then has to hold the 200 DMA RAH Inside day. Over 72.94, could see 2012 high 76.96 or higher
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
PCP Has to break today's lows
TKR Inside day. Has to break S1. Support 38.50
HUM Inside, narrow range day. Under 69.76 risk today's high
NFLX Like to see S1 break and not trade above 57.22 then R1 58.04
PAY Under S1 could see recent lows and lower
Bye for Now!
