SPY Gapped lower and then held the 10 DMA later filling the gap left from Friday's low, closing just beneath. Volume super light again which is not surprising ahead of the FOMC. Can now see either 115 or 123 as it's been all about Nasdaq. Subs-strictly following rules, through R1 121.26, could see another test of 122.80, the 50 DMA. Under today's low, down to 115.
DIA I did not even realize I wrote 112.30 key support and today's low was 112.29. That means that under that level more selling pressure, otherwise, has yet to test the 50 DMA overhead.
QQQ** AAPL and AMZN gave this the love today. They make up 40% of the QQQ. The advance/decline-under 22% of the Nasdaq stocks were unchanged to positive. (WYNN in there too) Now, a confirmed phase change to Accumulation. Noticed that 57.00 was the breaking point after the run to new highs in late July. It's possible we can rally and hold over 57.00, test the old high and then see selling as we near the end of the quarter-possible. It is also possible we will see a break of 55.00 and renewed selling pressure. The leaders have made giant moves and when giants fall they make a loud bang. Now overbought with little volume today-will wait for the 2.00 range of support/resistance breakout/breakdown to emerge.
IWM Filled the gap left from Friday's low and held the support 69.50 perfectly. Over 71.00 encouraging, under today's low not so much.
ETFs:
GLD The remaining long from Friday were exited under the lows from Friday. Tested and held last week's low however at 172.50. Now, will look for a new setup. A test of the 50 DMA and an oversold RSI would be a good place to look for.
SLV Still aside but like the test and hold of 38.05. Subs-39.26 R1 and above today's high which will look compelling as it also clears the 50 DMA.
SMH Tested and held the 50 DMA, filled the gap to Friday's low. Exited the long today but will look at a reentry over 31.00.
XRT I could not short this as I had planned today because TradeStation said "hard to borrow." Was not happy with the lack of liquidity in the ultrashort RETL. In a Death cross now which will be negated only with a close above 50.50.
XLF Such a party pooper and has been since 2008. Subs- above 12.67 clears today's high and R1-on the lookout for that before any bottom picking.
IYT 2 85.00 weekly resistance and 81.45 now support. Since transportation tends to be a great overall gauge, was the first to collapse from the highs in May and like XLF, has to stay at the party to keep the rally going.
Longs: Jumped in today with CMG (got more than 1.5 ATRS) since followed the rules and bought the strength over 30 minute Opening Range and a move above R1. GMCR bought over the pivots as a condition 1 which lined up with our rules and a good risk. WYNN PANL also made monster moves which I saw and did not chase. I point this out because I have focused on OR reversals and today OR breakouts were key for new positions. AMZN AAPL DECK ORLY way in the money and fine examples of swing trades.
BIDU 3 days under the FTP at 144.72. Hovering on the moving averages (10 and 50) so now if clears R1 147.52 has a good chance to move to 150 then target 159.50. Looking to buy the strength now with a stop under the FTP if goes. Day to swing
GOLD have been recommending NEM from last week so I am friendly to the mining stocks. Last week's high 111.92 and all time high 114.50 which if surpassed could take this to 140.00. Pivots positive at 110.37 so can consider an OR reversal as well. Day to swing
CERN Inside day with today high lining up with R1 at 68.12. Never had a classic OR reversal but held S1. Real risk under last week's low for swing and the 10 DMA at 66.15 for miniswing. Not overbought at all so has good potential to 82.00 if clears last week's high 69.38 Day to swing
EL Neutral pivots at 100.95 good support with tight risk for mini under today's low. Not a Nugget since moving averages are neither stacked nor sloped. Had an inside day and trading above the 50 DMA at 98.72 (risk for swing). Above Friday's high 101.89 could see move to 108.77 the all time high and beyond if market firms. Day to swing
Hon Mention (particularly interested in * through R1): CRM* (must clear R1 137.96 DE* (must clear 78.24 R1) SINA (must clear R1 111.66) CREE* (must clear R1 33.92) IDCC (must clear 64.56 R1) CF* (must clear 117.26 R1) SPG (must clear 120.04 R1) MA (ID look for OR reversal) CELG(inside day getting overbought but could see 63.45 swing high 11/10)
Shorts: Keep your eyes on TWM SDS FAZ (for OR reversals as well)
DO Provided it does not take out R1 at 63.85, pivots negative at 62.48 with a trendline that breaks down under last week's low. Support then 56.40 then 42.50. Day to swing
VRSN Provided it does not cross 28.47 with negative pivots at 29.04 could see last week's low and then27.65 the recent low with a break of that showing next support at 24.00. Day to swing
ACOM Provided it does not cross 29.47 with negative pivots at 28.24 could still see much lower prices to 18.00 if recent low 26.59 breaks Day to swing
Hon Mention: Watch for a target if short SOHU (oversold on RSI) CPT FSLR and any other shorts from last week
Goodnight!